The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 31 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be similar to yesterday for the beginning of the day. However, in the afternoon and into the evening conditions begin to change drastically. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will be over the area with the chance of drizzle this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to near 50 today with higher humidity. Winds will be variable. This afternoon and tonight conditions begin to degrade as a major weather system starts to work into the region. In Oklahoma there will be a chance of snow and freezing rain overnight. Temperatures will be in the teens to upper 20s from the central state area towards the border region. Winds will have begun to gain strength during the afternoon and will reach strong levels overnight, coming from the north at ten to twenty miles per hour. Tomorrow temperatures will stay below freezing with snow in the forecast. Winds will continue from the north at strong levels. Tomorrow night temperatures will be close to single digits with a decreasing chance of precipitation, but winds will remain strong but shift, coming from the northwest. In Texas, conditions today will continue to be warm with temperatures in most areas maintaining their 70 degree marks. However, during the afternoon and into the evening conditions will begin to change with a significant shift in temperatures and increase in precipitation as cold air moves over the region. Along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the southeast developing to strong levels towards evening, whereas to the west winds will be from the southwest, also gaining strength at the end of the day. Tonight a significant chance of precipitation develops across the Plateau and in its surrounding communities; Temperatures overnight will fall into the lower 50s and upper 40s in most regions. Winds will continue to be strong with gusts in and around the edge communities in the 30 mile per hour range. Tomorrow will be cold with high temperatures just reaching 50 in the furthest southern communities. Frozen precipitation is expected in most communities as the chance of precipitation will remain in the forecast. Winds will be from the north and be strong. Tomorrow night strong winds from the north to northwest will bring temperatures down into the low twenties and teens across the region. Wind chills will be significantly lower.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move southwest towards northern Texas at ground level on light winds today then get caught in greater wind strengths tomorrow as the change in the weather moves in tonight. Tonight the air mass turns and gets caught in the upper level moist air moving in with the storm system. The winds begin dense travelling at the elevation that they begin at for this afternoon. The winds from southern Oklahoma will move slowly and remain relatively close in northern Texas today. Today there is a chance of morning drizzle throughout the region and temperatures will only be in the mid-40s to just getting to 50. Tomorrow temperatures will only reach the mid to lower 20’s. This evening there is a chance of snow and freezing rain, followed by snow tomorrow. Surface temperatures will be in the upper teens to upper 20s with strong northerly and northeasterly winds at 10 to 20 miles an hour.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area today then an increasing chance of frozen precipitation tonight and tomorrow. There will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel both today and tomorrow. Cold conditions today will be poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. Tonight a significant weather system from the south meets a cold front from the north bringing the chance of freezing rain and snow. Winds will increase becoming moderate to strong and temperatures will drop well below freezing region wide. Temperatures today, will barely make it out of the 40’s. Pollen release is expected to be minimal if any. In most cases then with the accompanying heavy atmosphere, pollen that is entrained suffers impaction on objects which becomes a significant cleanser of the atmosphere with any distance. Tonight, deteriorating conditions over the region will increase. The chance of frozen precipitation remains tomorrow with a continuation of strong winds from the northern sector. A significant change in weather will occur tonight with a significant chance of snow and light freezing rain across the region. Winds tomorrow night will become strong and gusty. Note that some pollen may make it into Oklahoma from the Texas populations. See the Texas forecast for details.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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