The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 31 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be similar to yesterday for the beginning of the day. However, in the afternoon and into the evening conditions begin to change drastically. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will be over the area with the chance of drizzle this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to near 50 today with higher humidity. Winds will be variable. This afternoon and tonight conditions begin to degrade as a major weather system starts to work into the region. In Oklahoma there will be a chance of snow and freezing rain overnight. Temperatures will be in the teens to upper 20s from the central state area towards the border region. Winds will have begun to gain strength during the afternoon and will reach strong levels overnight, coming from the north at ten to twenty miles per hour. Tomorrow temperatures will stay below freezing with snow in the forecast. Winds will continue from the north at strong levels. Tomorrow night temperatures will be close to single digits with a decreasing chance of precipitation, but winds will remain strong but shift, coming from the northwest. In Texas, conditions today will continue to be warm with temperatures in most areas maintaining their 70 degree marks. However, during the afternoon and into the evening conditions will begin to change with a significant shift in temperatures and increase in precipitation as cold air moves over the region. Along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the southeast developing to strong levels towards evening, whereas to the west winds will be from the southwest, also gaining strength at the end of the day. Tonight a significant chance of precipitation develops across the Plateau and in its surrounding communities; Temperatures overnight will fall into the lower 50s and upper 40s in most regions. Winds will continue to be strong with gusts in and around the edge communities in the 30 mile per hour range. Tomorrow will be cold with high temperatures just reaching 50 in the furthest southern communities. Frozen precipitation is expected in most communities as the chance of precipitation will remain in the forecast. Winds will be from the north and be strong. Tomorrow night strong winds from the north to northwest will bring temperatures down into the low twenties and teens across the region. Wind chills will be significantly lower.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move north on southerly winds towards the western and central Oklahoma and on toward the northeast. Initial light winds will move the air but high winds are expected in the afternoon and will drive the atmosphere northward at a quickened pace. The air is dense during the first portion of the travel then begins to interact with more buoyant conditions as it meets and moves above the oncoming weather front. Any pollen that is entrained has the potential to travel long distances. Temperatures across the source area are warm today but get colder tomorrow and tomorrow night, with conditions becoming life threatening with the wind chills factored in. Be careful.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow**** Good conditions for pollen release today and good conditions for transport. Significant amounts of pollen may be released in Texas today and carried to the north. Tomorrow, the cold front and storm system will eliminate the potential for any pollen release or transport.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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