The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 2 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies but with cooler temperatures than have occurred over the past couple of days, especially to the north. Oklahoma City to northern Texas are expected to only reach into the low to mid 50’s today. To the south on the central Edward’s Plateau temperatures will also be in the 50’s to the west and in the low 60’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Most regions will be under a northerly flow of colder air at moderate levels. Tonight clear skies will result in cooling as most areas will be near or below freezing. The coldest areas, into the 20’s, will be north in Oklahoma and along the western side of the Edwards Plateau region. However, the edge communities are also expected to be in the low 30’s at or just above freezing overnight. Winds will be light and variable to the north and from the north at moderate levels in the edge communities. On the Plateau winds will be light but switching from their northerly flow to a predominant southerly flow at moderate levels. Tomorrow temperatures will warm into the 60’s across the region with a dominant, moderate, wind from the south. Winds will build during the day with sustained winds of 20 miles per hour across the western Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night the southerly winds will bring in more moisture resulting in partly cloudy skies across the region. Winds will remain moderate shifting slightly, coming from the southwest.

Trajectory weather: Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from southern Oklahoma move southward on northerly breezes today on light winds. Tonight light and variable winds will initially move the trajectory southward, then back towards the north as the northerly winds give way to a southerly breeze. Tomorrow, the southerly winds remain, building to moderate levels. Temperatures will be in the low 50’s for the high today, then the upper 50’s and low 60’s tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will be below freezing tonight across southern Oklahoma and Texas. Tomorrow night temperatures will approach freezing but remain in the mid-30s in most areas. The trajectories show relatively stable atmospheric conditions during the entirety of the forecast period.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Good conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today with cool conditions will provide moderate to good conditions for pollination. Winds will be at light levels from the north today, with light and variable conditions tonight. Tomorrow winds will be switching to a southerly flow at moderate levels. Central Oklahoma will be quite breezy (10 to 25 miles per hour). Temperatures will be in the low 50’s today and return to freezing conditions tonight. Tomorrow temperatures will build into the low 60’s across the border region with southerly winds pulling in more moisture from the south. Moderate conditions exist for pollination today and good conditions tomorrow, however, a check on the southern population trees recently, showed no pollen release currently ongoing. We continue to look for a clear signal of pollen dispersal from the southern Oklahoma population. Communities in Oklahoma near the populations may be impacted with increasing juniper pollen in the atmosphere, and with the switch to a southerly wind flow tonight, be impacted by pollen coming off of the Edwards Plateau Tomorrow. We will list today, as moderate, however significant amounts of pollen tomorrow will be expected to travel northwards from the larger Texas population.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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