The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Monday, January 2 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies but with cooler temperatures than have occurred over the past couple of days, especially to the north. Oklahoma City to northern Texas are expected to only reach into the low to mid 50’s today. To the south on the central Edward’s Plateau temperatures will also be in the 50’s to the west and in the low 60’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Most regions will be under a northerly flow of colder air at moderate levels. Tonight clear skies will result in cooling as most areas will be near or below freezing. The coldest areas, into the 20’s, will be north in Oklahoma and along the western side of the Edwards Plateau region. However, the edge communities are also expected to be in the low 30’s at or just above freezing overnight. Winds will be light and variable to the north and from the north at moderate levels in the edge communities. On the Plateau winds will be light but switching from their northerly flow to a predominant southerly flow at moderate levels. Tomorrow temperatures will warm into the 60’s across the region with a dominant, moderate, wind from the south. Winds will build during the day with sustained winds of 20 miles per hour across the western Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night the southerly winds will bring in more moisture resulting in partly cloudy skies across the region. Winds will remain moderate shifting slightly, coming from the southwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the central and eastern Edwards Plateau move initially toward the southern areas of Texas and then turn with the shift in winds from the north to the south late tonight. On the western side of the Plateau the shift will occur earlier. Once the change has occurred the southerly winds will drive the air masses back towards the north over northern Texas and Oklahoma. Cool conditions across the region will provide good conditions for pollen release today. The atmosphere will remain relatively stable over the forecast period In addition, pollen counts in the southern populations are climbing rapidly suggesting that the pollination season is in full swing. Tomorrow temperatures will warm back into the 60’s across the area with sunny skies and winds will continue from the south. Any pollen remaining in the atmosphere as well as new releases tomorrow will move northward again. Tomorrow night nighttime temperatures will warm as well with most areas at or above freezing except for the central and southern Edwards Plateau. In those regions near freezing conditions will occur.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Juniperus ashei pollen are being reported with the highest levels recorded in the edge communities from Waco to Austin and onward toward San Antonio. In areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau high levels will again be common. The good conditions today are suitable for cone ripening and release. Light to moderate winds in the area should result in moderate to heavy concentrations in the atmosphere. Clear skies will occur today and tomorrow with temperatures cooling after today’s unseasonable warm conditions. High temperatures will only reach into the 50’s across the region then warm by five to ten degrees tomorrow. Ground level trajectories will move initially southward but shift to a northerly direction as southerly winds take over tonight and tomorrow. Towards the west side of the Plateau, winds will begin to shift this afternoon from a northerly to southerly direction. The wind shift will be fully from the south be tomorrow morning with increasing wind speed to moderate conditions.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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