The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

High

Tulsa

Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 3 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies but with temperatures in the upper 50’s to the north and in the 60’s across the rest of the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Winds across the region will be from the south at moderate to strong levels in Oklahoma and just at moderate levels elsewhere. To the south winds will initially be moderate but build to blustery conditions (15 to 20 mile per hour) in the afternoon. Tonight central Oklahoma will be partly cloudy with clearing skies towards the border region with Texas. The communities surrounding the Plateau will also experience partly cloudy skies tonight. The areas to the north will be in the mid to upper 30’s with the edge communities dropping to 40 degrees. To the west on the Plateau mostly clear skies will allow more heat to be lost, therefore temperatures in these areas will be at or just below freezing. Winds will remain light and variable in the north but moderate from the southwest elsewhere. Sustained winds of 15 miles per hour will not be uncommon overnight. Tomorrow there will be sunny skies to the north and partly sunny skies in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself, partly cloudy skies will prevail. Temperatures will be near or at 60 degrees across the region except for the western most communities. In these areas cooler temperatures will prevail with the highs expected in the upper 50’s. Winds will be changing from the past southerly winds to a northerly wind during the day. The change will occur first in Oklahoma and in the western communities of the Plateau. Dallas, Austin and San Antonio will be experience the change into the evening hours. Tomorrow night partly to mostly cloudy conditions will occur across the Texas region. To the north in Oklahoma skies will remain clear overnight. Temperatures will be seasonal with lows in the upper 30’s to low 40’s in most areas. The western Edwards Plateau communities will be the exception where nighttime low temperatures will be at or just below freezing. The region will be in an overall northerly flow regime with light winds Wednesday night.

Trajectory weather: Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from southern Oklahoma move southward on northerly breezes early today on light winds. Then this morning and afternoon they will reverse as southerly winds take over moving the trajectories back north across central Oklahoma Tonight light and variable winds will occur in southern Oklahoma, however moderate conditions will exist northward in other portions of the state. Tomorrow, the southerly winds will give way to northerly winds at light levels, shifting to a more westerly flow by tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s for the high today, then the upper 50’s to low 60’s tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30’s tonight but above the freezing mark across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Tomorrow night temperatures will approach freezing in most areas. The trajectories show relatively stable atmospheric conditions during the entirety of the forecast period.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Good conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today with cool conditions will provide moderate to good conditions for pollination. Winds will be at moderate levels from the south today, relaxing to light and variable conditions overnight. Tomorrow winds will be switching back to a northerly flow at light levels. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s today with low temperatures in the mid 30’s tonight. Tomorrow temperatures will return to the high 50’s across the border region with moderate northerly winds returning. Significant conditions exist for pollen release today and tomorrow. We continue to look for a clear signal of pollen dispersal from the southern Oklahoma population. Communities in Oklahoma near the populations may be impacted with increasing juniper pollen in the atmosphere, and with the switch to a southerly wind flow today, may pull pollen from the larger population in Texas over the region (see the Texas forecast). There is less of a chance that the pollen will reach all the way to Tulsa but a moderate threat exists. The amount of pollen eminating from the Oklahoma population would be the primary source and its pollination is relatively small and most likely just beginning. Tomorrow the return of a northerly flow should clear the skies from any pollen that has moved northward coming off of the Edwards Plateau. We will list today, as moderate, however significant amounts will travel northwards from the larger Texas population.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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