The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 3 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies but with temperatures in the upper 50’s to the north and in the 60’s across the rest of the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Winds across the region will be from the south at moderate to strong levels in Oklahoma and just at moderate levels elsewhere. To the south winds will initially be moderate but build to blustery conditions (15 to 20 mile per hour) in the afternoon. Tonight central Oklahoma will be partly cloudy with clearing skies towards the border region with Texas. The communities surrounding the Plateau will also experience partly cloudy skies tonight. The areas to the north will be in the mid to upper 30’s with the edge communities dropping to 40 degrees. To the west on the Plateau mostly clear skies will allow more heat to be lost, therefore temperatures in these areas will be at or just below freezing. Winds will remain light and variable in the north but moderate from the southwest elsewhere. Sustained winds of 15 miles per hour will not be uncommon overnight. Tomorrow there will be sunny skies to the north and partly sunny skies in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself, partly cloudy skies will prevail. Temperatures will be near or at 60 degrees across the region except for the western most communities. In these areas cooler temperatures will prevail with the highs expected in the upper 50’s. Winds will be changing from the past southerly winds to a northerly wind during the day. The change will occur first in Oklahoma and in the western communities of the Plateau. Dallas, Austin and San Antonio will be experience the change into the evening hours. Tomorrow night partly to mostly cloudy conditions will occur across the Texas region. To the north in Oklahoma skies will remain clear overnight. Temperatures will be seasonal with lows in the upper 30’s to low 40’s in most areas. The western Edwards Plateau communities will be the exception where nighttime low temperatures will be at or just below freezing. The region will be in an overall northerly flow regime with light winds Wednesday night.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move initially toward the north on southerly winds then turn with the shift in winds from the south to the southwest late tonight. The air masses will move off towards the east and be caught up in a west to east flow. The atmosphere will be stable over the pathway of the trajectories. Temperatures across the region will be in the upper 50’s in northern Texas and Oklahoma, with the low 60’s expected over central Texas. Winds will start at the morning with light conditions but build to moderate winds speeds during the afternoon. The southerly winds will pull some moisture up with them therefore tonight partly and mostly cloudy conditions will occur in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself skies will be mostly clear.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport.Juniperus asheihigh levels will again be common. The good conditions today are suitable for cone ripening and release. The recent string of days that are good for pollen release may reduce the overall concentration in the atmosphere. However, moderate to strong winds across the area will continue the moderate to heavy concentrations in the atmosphere. Clear skies will occur today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 60’s across the region. High temperatures tomorrow will reach similar readings. Today stronger winds will occur, especially during the afternoon. Tomorrow lighter winds will occur ant areas to the north and southwest will shift to a more northerly direction. Increasing amounts of pollen are being reported with the highest levels recorded in the edge communities from Waco to Austin and onward toward San Antonio. In areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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