The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 4 – TX/OK: The region will have partly cloudy skies to the north in Oklahoma and over the Edwards Plateau today. Regions in north Texas and along the edge of the Edwards Plateau will be sunny today. Temperatures will remain in the upper 50’s and low 60’s over the area. Winds will be light to moderate primarily from the north. The strongest winds will occur along the western side of the Edwards Plateau where sustained wind conditions will be upwards of 20 miles per hour. Tonight the northern regions in Oklahoma and northern Texas will be clear with overnight lows reaching the mid 30’s to low 40’s. To the south partly cloudy skies will dominate the surrounding edge communities with low temperatures in the 40’s and the Edwards Plateau in the upper 20’s. Winds will be light and variable to the north. Over the rest of the region winds will be light to moderate from the north. Tomorrow morning, sunny skies will return with a few clouds over the edge communities. Temperatures will warm by a few degrees with most areas in the mid to upper 60’s. Winds to the north will switch coming from the southwest, whereas north to northwesterly winds will occur over the Edwards Plateau region. Those areas will experience light to moderate wind conditions. Going into the evening winds will once again shift across Texas, coming from the southwest at light to moderate levels. As that shift occurs, more moisture will be pulled into the area and partly cloudy skies will return to the lower elevation areas, especially in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself, mostly clear skies will remain. Temperatures will be in the lower 40’s surrounding the Plateau and at or just below freezing over the Plateau. There continues to be a lack of precipitation, and no significant rain storms are expected in the next few days.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from southern Oklahoma move due south on northerly breezes today on light winds over the forecasting period. Tonight light and variable winds will take over. Partly cloudy skies are expected today with clear conditions tonight, today’s temperatures are expected to reach the high 50’s to low 60’s. Along the pathway towards the south similar conditions will exist. Tonight skies will clear and temperatures will dip into the mid 30’s. Tomorrow sunny skies and temperatures into the mid 60’s are forecast. Winds will shift during the morning hours, coming from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow night the area will be in the mid to upper 30’s with clear skies and light winds from the south, becoming more variable.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Moderate conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today with temperatures in the upper 50’s and low 60’s will provide good conditions for pollination. However, winds will be at light to moderate levels from the north today, relaxing to light and variable conditions overnight. Therefore, entrainment and travel conditions will be moderate to low. Tomorrow winds will be switching back to a southerly flow at moderate levels, thus pollen entrainment will be better although in the border region where the tree population occurs, only 10 mile per hour winds are forecast. Temperatures will be in the low 60’s today with low temperatures in the mid 30’s tonight. Tomorrow temperatures will climb into the upper 60’s across the border region with light to moderate southwesterly winds. Only moderate conditions exist for pollination today and tomorrow. We continue to look for a clear signal of pollen dispersal from the southern Oklahoma population.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page