The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 4 – TX/OK: The region will have partly cloudy skies to the north in Oklahoma and over the Edwards Plateau today. Regions in north Texas and along the edge of the Edwards Plateau will be sunny today. Temperatures will remain in the upper 50’s and low 60’s over the area. Winds will be light to moderate primarily from the north. The strongest winds will occur along the western side of the Edwards Plateau where sustained wind conditions will be upwards of 20 miles per hour. Tonight the northern regions in Oklahoma and northern Texas will be clear with overnight lows reaching the mid 30’s to low 40’s. To the south partly cloudy skies will dominate the surrounding edge communities with low temperatures in the 40’s and the Edwards Plateau in the upper 20’s. Winds will be light and variable to the north. Over the rest of the region winds will be light to moderate from the north. Tomorrow morning, sunny skies will return with a few clouds over the edge communities. Temperatures will warm by a few degrees with most areas in the mid to upper 60’s. Winds to the north will switch coming from the southwest, whereas north to northwesterly winds will occur over the Edwards Plateau region. Those areas will experience light to moderate wind conditions. Going into the evening winds will once again shift across Texas, coming from the southwest at light to moderate levels. As that shift occurs, more moisture will be pulled into the area and partly cloudy skies will return to the lower elevation areas, especially in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself, mostly clear skies will remain. Temperatures will be in the lower 40’s surrounding the Plateau and at or just below freezing over the Plateau. There continues to be a lack of precipitation, and no significant rain storms are expected in the next few days.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward toward the border region on light wind strength today, tonight and tomorrow. The northerly breezes will remain today, tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow night a more southerly breeze will move into the Texas region shifting the direction of the winds towards the north. The air masses will move towards the border regions with Mexico. The atmosphere will be stable and slightly lifting over the pathway of the trajectories. Temperatures across the region will be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s in northern Texas and Oklahoma and over central Texas. Winds will start at the morning with light conditions and become more moderate during the afternoon. The northerly winds will remain tonight and tomorrow shifting to a more westerly direction then on to a southwesterly direction tomorrow night. Across the region relatively mild conditions are expected for the next couple of days.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Mostly clear skies with lots of sun will occur today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 60’s across the region. High temperatures tomorrow will reach similar readings. Today light to moderate winds will occur across the area coming from the north today, tonight and tomorrow. Levels of Juniperus ashei pollen are being reported but have stabilized over the last couple of days. The highest levels continue to be recorded in the edge communities from Waco to Austin and onward toward San Antonio. In areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau high levels will again be common. Conditions today are suitable for cone ripening and release. The recent string of days good for pollen release seems to be producing continue moderate levels rather than spikes of high pollen occurring sporadically. Mild conditions over the next forecast period should continue this trend.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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