The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 5 – TX/OK: The region will enjoy sunny skies and warm temperatures today and especially tomorrow. Across the region temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60’s under clear skies. Winds will be from the southwest and west in Oklahoma at light to moderate conditions. Across Texas mostly a west to southwest flow at light conditions will exist. Areas such as San Antonio will see drainage off of the Plateau and thus winds will be from the north at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tonight Oklahoma and the western regions of the Edwards Plateau will have clear to mostly clear skies. Surrounding the Edwards Plateau partly cloudy conditions will exist. Temperatures Thursday night will be in the 40’s with the western Plateau communities dropping into the mid to lower 30’s. Many areas will be at or near freezing, however temperatures in the 20’s are not expected. Winds will remain light from the south to southwest over the entire region. Friday will dawn once again to mostly sunny skies. Warmer conditions are expected with mid to upper 60’s from Dallas northward into Oklahoma, and low 70’s to upper 60’s elsewhere. Winds will build approaching moderate conditions, maintaining the southwestern flow towards the north to northeast. Winds between 10 and 15 miles per hour are expected. Tomorrow night partly cloudy conditions will cover the region. Temperatures will remain seasonal with readings in the 30’s to the north and in the western Plateau communities. In the edge communities and north towards the Dallas/Fort Worth are lows in the 40’s will be expected. Winds will remain from the south in most areas, although late communities to the far west will shift to winds coming from the north.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward heading over north central Texas and then across Oklahoma into Arkansas. Winds across the region will be light and from the southwest. In southern Oklahoma, winds will move primarily towards the northeast. The air appears to be stable with most of the trajectories gaining little to no altitude along their flight pathway. Tonight winds will calm but remain from the southwest. The southwesterly breezes will remain tomorrow picking up to moderate condition from 10 to 15 miles per hour in most areas. The atmosphere will remain stable if not somewhat heavy. Temperatures will actually warm with most areas across Texas being in the 70’s. In southern Oklahoma todays temperatures will be in the mid-60’s then warm to the upper 60’s tomorrow. Tomorrow and tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will develop as the southerly winds continue to push moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will stay from the south in most areas. The exception will be to the north and the far west where the next change will begin to turn the winds back to a flow coming from the north.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Moderate conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today with temperatures in the mid 60’s will provide good conditions for pollination. However, winds will be at light to moderate levels and the atmosphere is stable. This suggests that an pollen that is entrained in the atmosphere will have a greater chance of impaction as well as settling onto the ground. wind conditions overnight will relax as light and variable winds take over. Therefore, entrainment and travel conditions will be moderate to low. Tomorrow winds will continue with their southerly flow, but at more moderate levels, thus pollen entrainment will be better although in the border region where the tree population occurs, only 10 to 15 mile per hour winds are forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid 60’s today with low temperatures about 40 tonight. Tomorrow temperatures will climb into the upper 60’s across the border region with light to moderate southwesterly winds. Only moderate conditions exist for pollination today and tomorrow. We continue to look for a clear signal of pollen dispersal from the southern Oklahoma population.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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