The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate |
Austin |
Moderate |
San Antonio |
Moderate |
Date Issued: 5 January 2012
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Thursday, January 5 – TX/OK:
The region will enjoy sunny skies and warm temperatures today and especially tomorrow. Across the region temperatures
today will be in the mid to upper 60’s under clear skies. Winds will be from the southwest and west in Oklahoma
at light to moderate conditions. Across Texas mostly a west to southwest flow at light conditions will exist.
Areas such as San Antonio will see drainage off of the Plateau and thus winds will be from the north at 5 to 10
miles per hour. Tonight Oklahoma and the western regions of the Edwards Plateau will have clear to mostly clear
skies. Surrounding the Edwards Plateau partly cloudy conditions will exist. Temperatures Thursday night will
be in the 40’s with the western Plateau communities dropping into the mid to lower 30’s. Many areas will be at
or near freezing, however temperatures in the 20’s are not expected. Winds will remain light from the south to
southwest over the entire region. Friday will dawn once again to mostly sunny skies. Warmer conditions are expected
with mid to upper 60’s from Dallas northward into Oklahoma, and low 70’s to upper 60’s elsewhere. Winds will build
approaching moderate conditions, maintaining the southwestern flow towards the north to northeast. Winds between
10 and 15 miles per hour are expected. Tomorrow night partly cloudy conditions will cover the region. Temperatures
will remain seasonal with readings in the 30’s to the north and in the western Plateau communities. In the edge
communities and north towards the Dallas/Fort Worth are lows in the 40’s will be expected. Winds will remain from
the south in most areas, although late communities to the far west will shift to winds coming from the north.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward heading over north central
Texas and then across Oklahoma into Arkansas. Winds across the region will be light and from the southwest. The
air appears to be stable with most of the trajectories gaining or loosing little altitude along their flight pathway.
Tonight winds will calm but remain from the southwest. The southwesterly breezes will remain tomorrow picking
up to moderate condition from 10 to 15 miles per hour in most areas. The atmosphere will remain stable if not
somewhat heavy. Temperatures will actually warm with most areas across Texas being in th e70’s. Tomorrow night
partly cloudy skies will develop as the southerly winds continue to push moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico.
Winds will stay from the south in most areas. The exception will be to the north and the far west where the next
change will begin to turn the winds back to a flow coming from the north.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions
for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport.
Clear skies with lots of sun will occur today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 60’s across the region today
and into the 70’s tomorrow. Today light to moderate winds will occur across the area coming from the south and
southwest, today and tomorrow. Levels of Juniperus ashei pollen are being reported but have stabilized over the
last couple of days. The highest levels continue to be recorded in the edge communities from Waco to Austin and
onward toward San Antonio. In areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau high levels will again be common as winds
will move off the Plateau. Conditions over the next two days are very suitable for cone ripening and release.
The recent string of days good for pollen release seems to be producing a continuation of moderate levels rather
than spikes of high pollen occurring sporadically. Mild conditions over the forecast period should continue this
trend.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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