The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 6 – TX/OK: The region will enjoy mostly sunny skies to the east and sunny skies over the Edwards Plateau today. To the north in Oklahoma the southerly winds will bring increasing cloudiness. In addition, the southerly breezes will bring patchy morning fog to the communities surrounding the Plateau. Temperatures across the region will remain unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 70’s. To the north in Oklahoma today’s highs will be in the upper 60’s. Winds will remain from the south to southwest at moderate levels. Tonight the areas from Dallas/Fort Worth north into Oklahoma will have partly cloudy skies. Tonight’s low temperatures across the region will be seasonal with only the furthest western areas flirting with freezing conditions. Elsewhere on the Plateau lows will be in the mid to upper 30’s and the surrounding communities will only fall into the upper 40’s. The warm nighttime temperatures and southerly breezes will result in patchy fog in the edge communities’ tomorrow morning. Tomorrow to the north, partly cloudy skies will occur throughout the day. To the south and around the Edwards Plateau sunny to mostly sunny conditions will occur, whereas partly cloudy skies will be building towards the west over the Edwards Plateau. High temperatures tomorrow will cool with mid 50’s across Oklahoma and low to mid 60’s across Texas. The southernmost edge communities are expected to be in the low 70’s. Winds will switch tomorrow coming from the north at moderate to light levels. Towards the evening and overnight partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will build towards the north. Low temperatures will be seasonal again in the upper 30’s across the Edwards Plateau and in Oklahoma with upper 40’s in the metropolitan communities in northern Texas and surrounding the Edward’s Plateau. Winds will be light switching back coming from the north, except for the Edwards Plateau communities where a southerly breeze will return.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward heading over north central Texas and then across southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Winds across the region will be moderate from the southwest. In southern Oklahoma, winds will move primarily towards the northeast. The air appears to be stable with most of the trajectories gaining little to no altitude along their flight pathway. The lowest level winds will move slowly towards the northeast eventually crossing over the Tulsa Metro area. Tonight winds will calm but remain from the southwest then change to a northerly flow after midnight. Tomorrow northerly winds will be light to moderate. In southern Oklahoma todays temperatures will be in the upper-60’s then cool with the wind change to the mid 50’s tomorrow

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow with Moderate conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Cloudy skies today with temperatures in the upper 60’s will provide good conditions for pollination. However, winds will be at light to moderate levels from the southwest and the atmosphere is stable. Conditions suggest that at the lowest levels of the atmosphere, winds will move any entrained pollen towards northeastern Oklahoma. However, the winds will move along the pathway slowly and the air is dense, thus most pollen should fall out of the airstream fairly close to the source. Therefore, entrainment and travel conditions will be moderate to low. Tomorrow winds will shift coming from the north at light to moderate levels. In the border region where the tree population occurs, only 10 to 15 mile per hour winds are forecast. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s today with low temperatures in the mid- to upper-30’s tonight. Tomorrow temperatures will only climb into the mid-50’s. Good conditions exist for pollination today but fall off to poor to moderate conditions tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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