The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 7/ Sunday, January 8 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather today and tomorrow will be degrading towards the chance of rain Sunday night. Conditions will remain seasonally warm but clouds will begin to build and precipitation is expected tomorrow night. In Oklahoma and across the western areas of the Edwards Plateau partly cloudy skies will start to build this morning on northerly breezes. To the north the high temperatures will reach into the mid 50’s today, whereas to the south a return to the 60’s is expected in most areas. The southernmost edge communities will flirt with near 70 degrees again this afternoon. Winds will be light from the north coming from the northwest. Tonight clouds will begin to thicken and winds will die being very light in most areas. Tonight the low temperature will be moderated by the cloud cover and most areas will be in the 40’s. Areas of the western most Edwards Plateau will get into the 30’s but freezing conditions are not expected anywhere across the region. Tomorrow will dawn with mostly cloudy and cloudy conditions. To the north in Oklahoma sprinkles are a possibility. Winds will continue to be from the north to northeast at mild to moderate levels. High temperatures will only be in the upper 40’s and low 50’s on Sunday. To the south, cloudy conditions and mild temperatures will occur. Temperatures will be in the 60’s across the region with winds from the east and southeast. The surrounding communities will have light winds and in the southern communities there will be a 20% chance of rain during the day. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 60’s in most regions. Sunday night the skies build to cloudy conditions with a significant chance of rain across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Winds will build to moderate conditions from the east and northeast and temperatures will be in the 40’s and 50’s. Cooler lows will occur in the western Edwards Plateau communities while lows in the mid to low 50’s will occur in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The chance of rain in the areas surrounding the Plateau will be 60% to 70% . Communities in the western region of the Edwards Plateau will have a 40% chance of rain overnight.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from southern Oklahoma move south and southwestward heading over north Texas.. Winds across the region will be light from the north and northeast. In southern Oklahoma, winds will move primarily towards the southwest. The air appears to be stable with most of the trajectories gaining little to no altitude along their flight pathway. Temperatures today will be in the mid-50’s with partly cloudy skies. The skies will continue to build towards cloudy conditions tomorrow, with low temperatures tonight in the mid 30’s in central Oklahoma and mid 40’s along the border region. Tonight’s winds will calm from their northeasterly direction. Tomorrow morning sprinkles area forecast across the region, with a 20% to 30% chance of rain tomorrow night. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 40’s and 50’s. Winds will increase slightly tomorrow and then tomorrow night, maintaining their direction from the northeast.

OUTLOOK : *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow with Moderate conditions today and poor conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Cloudy skies today with temperatures in the mid 50’s will provide moderate conditions for pollination. However, winds will be at light from the northeast and the atmosphere is stable. Conditions suggest that at the lowest levels of the atmosphere, winds will move any entrained pollen towards the southwest over northernmost Texas. However, the winds will move along the pathway slowly and the air is dense with increasing humidityu, thus most pollen should fall out of the airstream fairly close to the source. Therefore, entrainment and travel conditions will be moderate today decaying to poor tomorrow. Tomorrow winds will maintain their northeast to southwest direction at light levels. In the border region where the tree population occurs, only 10 to 15 mile per hour winds are forecast at their height, and lower levels during other times. Tomorrow temperatures will only climb into the upper 40’s and low 50’s. Moderate conditions exist for pollination today but fall off becoming poor tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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