The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 7/ Sunday, January 8 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather today and tomorrow will be degrading towards the chance of rain Sunday night. Conditions will remain seasonally warm but clouds will begin to build and precipitation is expected tomorrow night. In Oklahoma and across the western areas of the Edwards Plateau partly cloudy skies will start to build this morning on northerly breezes. To the north the high temperatures will reach into the mid 50’s today, whereas to the south a return to the 60’s is expected in most areas. The southernmost edge communities will flirt with near 70 degrees again this afternoon. Winds will be light from the north coming from the northwest. Tonight clouds will begin to thicken and winds will die being very light in most areas. Tonight the low temperature will be moderated by the cloud cover and most areas will be in the 40’s. Areas of the western most Edwards Plateau will get into the 30’s but freezing conditions are not expected anywhere across the region. Tomorrow will dawn with mostly cloudy and cloudy conditions. To the north in Oklahoma sprinkles are a possibility. Winds will continue to be from the north to northeast at mild to moderate levels. High temperatures will only be in the upper 40’s and low 50’s on Sunday. To the south, cloudy conditions and mild temperatures will occur. Temperatures will be in the 60’s across the region with winds from the east and southeast. The surrounding communities will have light winds and in the southern communities there will be a 20% chance of rain during the day. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 60’s in most regions. Sunday night the skies build to cloudy conditions with a significant chance of rain across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Winds will build to moderate conditions from the east and northeast and temperatures will be in the 40’s and 50’s. Cooler lows will occur in the western Edwards Plateau communities while lows in the mid to low 50’s will occur in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The chance of rain in the areas surrounding the Plateau will be 60% to 70% . Communities in the western region of the Edwards Plateau will have a 40% chance of rain overnight.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southwesterly moving around central Texas and reaching outside of the state in a few cases. Winds across the region will be light from the northeast. The air appears to be initially stable with most of the trajectories gaining or loosing little altitude until later tomorrow when lighter air moves into the region along with the greater chance of precipitation. Temperatures will remain relatively warm across Texas with high’s today in the 60’s on the Plateau and coming close to the 70’s in areas surrounding communities, Oklahoma will drop tomorrow into the 40’s and low 50’s. The region will see increased humidity as the chance of rain builds on Sunday into Sunday night. Tonight winds will be calm and remain from the northeast. The northeasterly breezes will will shift tonight to a more easterly and southeasterly direction. Winds will remain light tomorrow except for the far western Edwards Plateau communities where more moderate conditions will exist. Sunday night moderate winds will come in with the increased chance of precipitation.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today but degrading towards moderate conditions tomorrow with moderate to poor conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will start to change towards increasing cloudy conditions and rain tomorrow. Warm conditions with high temperatures in the 60’s will be recorded across the region and winds will be from the northwest at light to moderate levels. As the day goes on clouds will begin to build into the evening. Tonight partly cloudy skies will occur with light winds coming out of the northeast. Temperatures will be in the mid 40’s in most areas and mid to upper 30’s in the western communities on the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow the chance of rain will increase with a 20% chance in the morning and afternoon in the edge communities. The remaining region will see rain beginning tomorrow night. Pollen levels were very high yesterday with the clear skies and warm temperatures. Those conditions will begin to deteriorate moving forward through the weekend. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm today thus pollen release is expected. However, light winds and increasing humidity will result in moderate to poor conditions for entrainment and travel. For these reasons, significant concentrations are expected in and around the populations but long-distance travel is not expected. Tomorrow greater humidity and a building chance of precipitation will reduce any

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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