The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 9 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather today will deteriorate with cloudy skies going towards rainy condition extending into tonight and tomorrow morning in most areas. Today is the greatest chance of rain with 70% to 100% expected across Texas. The system will be across Texas thus in Oklahoma there will be a chance of rain, especially along the border but it declines towards the north. Temperatures today will be in 40’s and 50’s in Oklahoma south across the eastern Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. To the west on the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the 30’s and 40’s. San Angelo may see as much as 3” of snow. Winds will be moderate to strong, 15 to 20 miles per hour with 25 mile per hour gusts, from the north. Tonight the chance of rain begins to decrease to the south but builds to the north. Temperatures will be in the upper 30’s, except for the western areas of the Edwards Plateau where the temperatures will flirt with the freezing level. In the northern areas the winds will remain from the north. In Texas, however, the winds will shift coming from the northwest, but remain at moderate to strong levels. Tomorrow, the chance of rain will remain across Oklahoma and northern most Texas. To the south the weather will begin to clear with temperatures expected back into the 50’s and in the 60’s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds will remain from the northwest with moderate to strong conditions and gusts up to 25 miles per hour. Tomorrow night temperatures will drop into the 30’s region wide. Winds will drop to moderate levels coming out of the west. Across the western side of the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the low 30’s and upper 20’s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the southern Oklahoma move southward towards the Edwards Plateau before moving at significant speed towards the southeast out over the Gulf of Mexico. Very poor conditions for pollination along with entrainment will occur today and tomorrow as a rain storm moves through the area. Precipitation expected today, tonight, and tomorrow should wash all pollen from the atmosphere. Tuesday, conditions begin to improve but Wednesday is the next day when pollen may once again be in the atmosphere in any significant amount.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Poor conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be cloudy with precipitation across the region today making for poor conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve to the south, however conditions will not be back to a level that will result in pollen release until at least Wednesday.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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