The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Low |
San Antonio |
Low |
Date Issued: 9 January 2012
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Monday, January 9 – TX/OK: Across
the region the weather today will deteriorate with cloudy skies going towards rainy condition extending into tonight
and tomorrow morning in most areas. Today is the greatest chance of rain with 70% to 100% expected across Texas.
The system will be across Texas thus in Oklahoma there will be a chance of rain, especially along the border but
it declines towards the north. Temperatures today will be in 40’s and 50’s in Oklahoma south across the eastern
Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. To the west on the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be
in the 30’s and 40’s. San Angelo may see as much as 3” of snow. Winds will be moderate to strong, 15 to 20 miles
per hour with 25 mile per hour gusts, from the north. Tonight the chance of rain begins to decrease to the south
but builds to the north. Temperatures will be in the upper 30’s, except for the western areas of the Edwards Plateau
where the temperatures will flirt with the freezing level. In the northern areas the winds will remain from the
north. In Texas, however, the winds will shift coming from the northwest, but remain at moderate to strong levels.
Tomorrow, the chance of rain will remain across Oklahoma and northern most Texas. To the south the weather will
begin to clear with temperatures expected back into the 50’s and in the 60’s in the surrounding edge communities.
Winds will remain from the northwest with moderate to strong conditions and gusts up to 25 miles per hour. Tomorrow
night temperatures will drop into the 30’s region wide. Winds will drop to moderate levels coming out of the west.
Across the western side of the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the low 30’s and upper 20’s.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau swirl over the Edwards Plateau before
moving at significant speed towards the southeast out over the Gulf of Mexico. Very poor conditions for pollination
along with entrainment will occur today and tomorrow as a rain storm moves through the area. Precipitation expected
today, tonight, and tomorrow should wash all pollen from the atmosphere. Tuesday, conditions begin to improve but
Wednesday is the next day when pollen may once again be in the atmosphere in any significant amount.
OUTLOOK: *** Poor Threat today and Poor Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions
for pollen release today and tomorrow with poor conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies
will be cloudy with precipitation across the region today making for poor conditions for pollen release, entrainment
and travel. Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve to the south, however conditions will not be back to a level
that will result in pollen release until at least Wednesday.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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