The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 10 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will begin to clear. Areas to the north have a chance for rain in the morning with a 50% to 60% chance of precipitation in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. To the south mostly cloudy conditions will occur in the morning but it will soon break towards mostly sunny conditions by the afternoon. The areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will clear faster than on the Plateau itself. To the far west, San Angelo will still have a 20% chance of rain early this morning. Once the moisture leaves the area temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 40’s in north Texas and southern Oklahoma to the mid 50’s along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and its surrounding edge communities. San Antonio is expected to get into the low 60’s this afternoon. However, cold air will still be entrenched across the western side of the Plateau with highs barely reaching into the 50’s in San Angelo as well as Sonora. Winds will be moderate (10-20 mph) with strong gust (25 mph) from the northwest throughout the day, coming from the west tonight. Overnight partly cloudy skies in the north will grade towards mostly cloudy skies in the edge communities and mostly clear to clear skies over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the mid to low thirties region wide, except in western Texas where the upper 20’s are expected. Tomorrow skies will return to sunny conditions across most of the region. Winds will remain at moderate levels building towards the afternoon. The westerly winds from the previous night will shift further south causing the wind pattern to blow from the southwest. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. The surrounding communities will reach into the upper 60’s and flirt with the low 70’s in Junction as well as San Antonio. To the west temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 60’s. Across the region tomorrow night will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s in the urban centers and 5 to 10 degrees cooler across the western Edwards Plateau and northward into southern Oklahoma. Winds will switch from the southwestern winds during the day to moderate winds coming from the north.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move south on northerly winds early today, then get caught in the wind shift, coming from the northwest and eventually west. The trajectory shows an initial southerly pathway that increasingly curves towards the east. Over the next 48 hours the areas will be mostly to partly cloudy with cool high temperatures in the 50’s and lows in the lower 30’s reaching into the 20’s tomorrow night. This morning a 30% to 50% chance of rain will occur but by noon the system should be out of the area. Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve with partly cloudy skies north but sunny skies near the border with Texas. Conditions will be border line for pollen release. If pollen is released the atmosphere will be heavy and dense travelling at ground level where there is a greater chance of being deposited out of the air stream. Therefore while release conditions area improving, the conditions for entrainment and travel will continue to be poor.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and potentially moderate condtions tomorrow but with poor conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be cloudy with precipitation across the region this morning making for poor conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve, however conditions will not be back to a level that will result in pollen release. Wednesday night partly cloudy skies return and temperatures fall into the mid to low 20’s.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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