The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 11 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to improve from the recent rains. To the north partly cloudy skies will continue with sunny or partly sunny conditions across the remainder of region. This morning ground fog will be common in the border region from Dallas/Fort Worth towards Oklahoma. Temperatures across Oklahoma will be in the mid 50’s to low 60’s. To the south, temperatures will rise into the upper 60’s to low 70’s. The areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will return into the 70’s whereas the Plateau itself will top out in the 60’s. Although conditions look to be improving, winds will be from the west to southwest at moderate levels and gusty. To the southwest, later today changes will begin with winds becoming more westerly as they begin to move towards a more northerly direction tonight. This evening, partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures in the mid 20’s to the north in Oklahoma and 30’s common across Texas. To the west tonights lows will bottom out in the lower 20’s, whereas further east of the Plateau temperatures will stay in the mid 30’s. The edge communities will be in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Winds will start out from the west, shifting to the northwest and eventually coming from the north. As this shift occurs winds will increase with gusty conditions. Some areas, especially to the north, will see wind gusts into the 40 mph range. Tomorrow, cooler conditions will occur with most high temperatures straining to get into the 50’s. Highs tomorrow in central Oklahoma will be in the 30’s. Winds will continue from the north at moderate levels with gusts into the mid 20 mph range. Tomorrow night the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy, while the remainder of the region will be clear. Temperatures will be very cold with lows in most areas in the 20’s. Areas on the Edwards Plateau will be in the lower 20’s whereas other areas will be in the upper 20’s. Winds will calm overnight to light conditions remaining from the north except to the southwest where a southeasterly wind is a signal of the next shift in weather on its way.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move southward on northwest winds today. Conditions will be moderate today for pollination as the high temperature is expected to be in the low 60’s. Morning fog may add additional humidity onto the trees and further delay cones from opening. Tonight temperatures will drop into the 20’s with strong winds as the wind direction switches from the northwest to the north. Tomorrow much colder conditions will occur with highs barely making it into the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Winds will be moderate from the northwest under sunny skies. Tomorrow night clear skies will continue and temperatures will drop into the teens and low 20’s. winds will shift towards the northwest and remain light to moderate.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Good conditions today and poor conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be clearing today with warming temperatures as highs are expected in the low 60’s. Winds will be light to moderate and some buoyancy will occur under the warming conditions. Tonight and tomorrow cold air will move in with very cold conditions tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. With the cold air, dense stable air will move over the region. The cold dense air will result in poor conditions for entrainment and travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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