The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 11 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to improve from the recent rains. To the north partly cloudy skies will continue with sunny or partly sunny conditions across the remainder of region. This morning ground fog will be common in the border region from Dallas/Fort Worth towards Oklahoma. Temperatures across Oklahoma will be in the mid 50’s to low 60’s. To the south, temperatures will rise into the upper 60’s to low 70’s. The areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will return into the 70’s whereas the Plateau itself will top out in the 60’s. Although conditions look to be improving, winds will be from the west to southwest at moderate levels and gusty. To the southwest, later today changes will begin with winds becoming more westerly as they begin to move towards a more northerly direction tonight. This evening, partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures in the mid 20’s to the north in Oklahoma and 30’s common across Texas. To the west tonights lows will bottom out in the lower 20’s, whereas further east of the Plateau temperatures will stay in the mid 30’s. The edge communities will be in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Winds will start out from the west, shifting to the northwest and eventually coming from the north. As this shift occurs winds will increase with gusty conditions. Some areas, especially to the north, will see wind gusts into the 40 mph range. Tomorrow, cooler conditions will occur with most high temperatures straining to get into the 50’s. Highs tomorrow in central Oklahoma will be in the 30’s. Winds will continue from the north at moderate levels with gusts into the mid 20 mph range. Tomorrow night the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy, while the remainder of the region will be clear. Temperatures will be very cold with lows in most areas in the 20’s. Areas on the Edwards Plateau will be in the lower 20’s whereas other areas will be in the upper 20’s. Winds will calm overnight to light conditions remaining from the north except to the southwest where a southeasterly wind is a signal of the next shift in weather on its way.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move eastward on moderate westerly winds gusting to moderate levels then at the lower levels, shift straight south. Temperatures will be rebounding from the rainy weather earlier in the week. It is expected that conditions will exist during the day for pollination as the region continues to dry out. The dominant westerly wind pattern will move any pollen entrained into the atmosphere to the east and then southward over eastern Texas. The beginning of warming today will end tonight as the westerly winds are replaced by a strong push of cold air out of the north. Very gusty conditions will occur with moderately strong winds accompany the change. As the cold air invades high temperatures will drop on Thursday into the 40’s and low 50’s for the highs. Tomorrow night very cold conditions with most readings in the 20’s will occur under clear and partly cloudy skies.


OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today with a return of poor conditions tomorrow with good conditions today and poor tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be partly cloudy north and sunny to partly sunny across Texas today. Temperatures will be warm in the 60’s and 70’s across the region. Winds will be moderate and the atmosphere will be buoyant. Conditions will be good for pollination today as the region dries from the recent rains. Areas surrounding the Plateau will be especially affected by high pollen levels. Overnight cooling conditions and a switch in the winds as cold conditions move in will restrict pollination tomorrow as well as create poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Tomorrow conditions will deteriorate and moderate conditions will occur with the greatest potential for pollen effects will be in those communities that are close to the tree populations.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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