The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 12 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be under the influence of a push of cold air coming from the north and accompanied with moderately strong winds from the north and northwest. In Oklahoma, temperatures will remain in the low 40’s and winds will be 15 to 25 miles per hour. Across the Edwards Plateau, partly cloudy skies will be present with temperatures only in the upper 40’s. Winds will be strong to begin the day and then start to tail off towards the late afternoon. Winds this afternoon will be in the 5 to 15 miles per hour range. In the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, temperatures will be at or just above 50 degrees for the high reading today. Tonight temperatures will be cold across the region with clear skies in Oklahoma and partly cloudy conditions across Texas. Temperatures will be in the upper teens and low twenties across the Edwards Plateau, the mid to upper 20’s in the surrounding communities, and back to the lower twenties and upper teens across Oklahoma. Winds will relax, coming from the north to northwest in most areas except for the southwest where light southwesterly breezes will occur. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will occur across the Oklahoma and over the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities and north towards the border areas with Oklahoma clear and sunny conditions will be common. Temperatures will be in the 50’s across the area. Areas to the west and north will top out in the low 50’s whereas the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be in the upper 50’s. Winds will be moderate from the southwest. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will occur across most of the area with clear skies in the western most communities. Very cold conditions will occur once again with most areas in the mid to upper 20’s, The areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will flirt with freezing conditions in the low 30’s. Winds will be from the southwest at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move southeastward on moderate to strong north to northwest winds today. The skies will be sunny but with the push of very cold air high temperatures will struggle to get into the lower 40’s. Tonight winds will decrease but with clear skies will result in very cold conditions. Low temperatures will be in the teens and low twenties. Winds will drop from moderate strengths to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow, temperatures will continue to be cold but about 10 degrees warmer. Winds will be light to moderate and coming from the southwest. Skies will be partly cloudy and overnight lows will once again reach into the 20’s but warmer by about 4 to 5 degrees.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions today and poor conditions tomorrow for pollen entrainment and transport. Skies will be clear and sunny today and clear tonight with cold temperatures as cold, dense air moves into the area. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the 40’s and low 50’s. The cold daytime conditions along with nighttime lows in the teens should result in a significant drop-off in pollination along with entrainment and travel. If pollen get entrained into the atmosphere it will travel at ground level where pollen is removed be impaction on vegetation. Because of the cold conditions in the area and dense cold air little pollen is expected to be released or move beyond the tree populaitons.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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