The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 12 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be under the influence of a push of cold air coming from the north and accompanied with moderately strong winds from the north and northwest. In Oklahoma, temperatures will remain in the low 40’s and winds will be 15 to 25 miles per hour. Across the Edwards Plateau, partly cloudy skies will be present with temperatures only in the upper 40’s. Winds will be strong to begin the day and then start to tail off towards the late afternoon. Winds this afternoon will be in the 5 to 15 miles per hour range. In the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, temperatures will be at or just above 50 degrees for the high reading today. Tonight temperatures will be cold across the region with clear skies in Oklahoma and partly cloudy conditions across Texas. Temperatures will be in the upper teens and low twenties across the Edwards Plateau, the mid to upper 20’s in the surrounding communities, and back to the lower twenties and upper teens across Oklahoma. Winds will relax, coming from the north to northwest in most areas except for the southwest where light southwesterly breezes will occur. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will occur across the Oklahoma and over the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities and north towards the border areas with Oklahoma clear and sunny conditions will be common. Temperatures will be in the 50’s across the area. Areas to the west and north will top out in the low 50’s whereas the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be in the upper 50’s. Winds will be moderate from the southwest. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will occur across most of the area with clear skies in the western most communities. Very cold conditions will occur once again with most areas in the mid to upper 20’s, The areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will flirt with freezing conditions in the low 30’s. Winds will be from the southwest at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau initially move southward on the moderately strong northerly winds today. However, later this evening and into tomorrow will see the winds shift to a more southerly direction. As this occurs the trajectories show a swirling over the Edwards Plateau and further south. Temperatures will be in the 40’s for highs today as cold air moves south over the area. Tonight, temperatures will fall far below freezing with most readings expected to be in the mid to low 20’s and upper teens. It is expected that conditions will exist during the day with a slight chance for pollination but it generally is not a large pollen event when temperatures are under the low 50’s. Winds will be strong today, sustained at 15 to 25 miles per hour. The air is very cold and dense therefore any entrained pollen will move at or near the grounds surface. Tomorrow temperatures will warm be 5 degrees and the region will continue to dry out. The dominant northwesterly wind pattern will move entrained pollen towards the south but tomorrow southerly winds will turn the winds back towards the north.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today with a return of moderate conditions tomorrow with poor conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy across Texas today. Temperatures will be cold with most highs in the low to mid 40’s today. Tonight lows will be in the mid to lower 20’s making for very cold conditions and then tomorrow temperatures will warm by 5 to 7 degrees with some areas breaking the 50’s mark. Winds will be strong today as cold air pushes through the area from the north. Slightly warmer conditions will exist tomorrow. Both days would traditionally be considered as low risk days for pollen dispersal and transport. However, large concentrations of pollen have been recorded recently, especially in communities (Austin, San Antonio) where air is draining off of the Edwards Plateau, therefore there still remains a moderate risk of significant amounts of pollen in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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