The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 13 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming from the recent push of cold air. Skies today will be partly cloudy to the north and across the Edwards Plateau. In the areas surrounding the plateau mostly sunny skies will occur. Temperatures will be warming with most areas in the low to mid 50’s. The areas towards the south and west will tend to be in upper 50’s while to the north and around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the lower 50’s. Winds today will be from the west in the north, and from the southwest in most of the other areas especially across Texas. Tonight temperatures will be below freezing across the area with temperatures in the edge communities in the low 30’s and the remaining areas in the 20’s. Skies will be partly cloudy in Oklahoma, mostly cloudy to the south along the eastern edge communities and mostly clear across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow sunny skies will take over with regional temperatures in the 60’s across Texas. Areas in Oklahoma will only reach into the upper 50’s. In the north winds will be light to moderate from the west. Elsewhere winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies develop with warmer overnight temperatures. Readings in the mid to upper 30’s and low 40’s in San Antonio. In Oklahoma, freezing temperatures are expected but temperatures will not drop below the 30’s. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move eastward on light to moderate winds from the west today. The skies will be partly cloudy with the high temperature expected to be in the lower 50’s. Tonight winds will decrease with partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 20’s, Tomorrow conditions will continue to warm with high’s expected to be in the upper 50’s. Winds will remain light to moderate from the west. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will keep some of the heat in and low temperatures will only reach into the lower 30’s but below freezing temperatures are not guaranteed

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions today and Moderate conditions tomorrow for pollen entrainment and transport. Skies will be partly cloudy today and tonight with cold temperatures beginning to warm. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low 50’s today and upper 50’s tomorrow. The cool daytime conditions along with nighttime lows below freezing should result in a significant drop-off in pollination along with entrainment and travel. If pollen get entrained into the atmosphere it will travel at ground level where pollen is removed be impaction on vegetation. Light to moderate winds will also move any entrained pollen at slower travel times.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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