The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday, January 13 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming from the recent push of cold air. Skies today will be partly cloudy to the north and across the Edwards Plateau. In the areas surrounding the plateau mostly sunny skies will occur. Temperatures will be warming with most areas in the low to mid 50’s. The areas towards the south and west will tend to be in upper 50’s while to the north and around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the lower 50’s. Winds today will be from the west in the north, and from the southwest in most of the other areas especially across Texas. Tonight temperatures will be below freezing across the area with temperatures in the edge communities in the low 30’s and the remaining areas in the 20’s. Skies will be partly cloudy in Oklahoma, mostly cloudy to the south along the eastern edge communities and mostly clear across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow sunny skies will take over with regional temperatures in the 60’s across Texas. Areas in Oklahoma will only reach into the upper 50’s. In the north winds will be light to moderate from the west. Elsewhere winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies develop with warmer overnight temperatures. Readings in the mid to upper 30’s and low 40’s in San Antonio. In Oklahoma, freezing temperatures are expected but temperatures will not drop below the 30’s. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau will move toward the northeast on southward winds at light to moderate levels. These winds will remain constant over today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 50’s for highs today as cold air from yesterday is warmed. Tonight temperatures will fall below freezing with most readings expected to be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s. Most areas are expected to go below freezing. Tomorrow temperatures will increase by 5 to 8 degrees with sunny skies and winds continuing from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Clouds come back tomorrow night resulting in partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow night temperatures will get back into the 30’s but most areas will fail to go below freezing. Winds will shift to a more southerly direction, but they will remain at light to moderate strength.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today with a return of moderate conditions tomorrow with poor conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny across Texas today. Temperatures will be warming from very cold conditions yesterday with most highs in the low to mid 50’s today. Tonight lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30’s with most areas at or below freezing. Tomorrow temperatures will warm by 5 to 7 degrees with most areas breaking the 60’s mark. Winds will be light to moderate today as conditions continue to improve. Both days would traditionally be considered as low to moderate risk for pollen dispersal and transport. However, large concentrations of pollen have been recorded recently especially in communities (Austin, San Antonio) where air is draining off of the Edwards Plateau therefore there still remains a moderate to significant risk of high pollen levels in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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