The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 13 January 2012
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Friday, January 13 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will be warming from the recent push of cold air. Skies today will be partly cloudy
to the north and across the Edwards Plateau. In the areas surrounding the plateau mostly sunny skies will occur.
Temperatures will be warming with most areas in the low to mid 50’s. The areas towards the south and west will
tend to be in upper 50’s while to the north and around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau temperatures will
be in the lower 50’s. Winds today will be from the west in the north, and from the southwest in most of the other
areas especially across Texas. Tonight temperatures will be below freezing across the area with temperatures in
the edge communities in the low 30’s and the remaining areas in the 20’s. Skies will be partly cloudy in Oklahoma,
mostly cloudy to the south along the eastern edge communities and mostly clear across the Edwards Plateau. Winds
will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow sunny skies will take over with regional temperatures
in the 60’s across Texas. Areas in Oklahoma will only reach into the upper 50’s. In the north winds will be light
to moderate from the west. Elsewhere winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow night
partly cloudy skies develop with warmer overnight temperatures. Readings in the mid to upper 30’s and low 40’s
in San Antonio. In Oklahoma, freezing temperatures are expected but temperatures will not drop below the 30’s.
Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 miles per hour.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau will move toward the northeast on southward
winds at light to moderate levels. These winds will remain constant over today and tomorrow. Temperatures will
be in the 50’s for highs today as cold air from yesterday is warmed. Tonight temperatures will fall below freezing
with most readings expected to be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s. Most areas are expected to go below freezing.
Tomorrow temperatures will increase by 5 to 8 degrees with sunny skies and winds continuing from the southwest
at light to moderate levels. Clouds come back tomorrow night resulting in partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow night
temperatures will get back into the 30’s but most areas will fail to go below freezing. Winds will shift to a
more southerly direction, but they will remain at light to moderate strength.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow
*** Poor conditions for pollen release today with a return of moderate conditions tomorrow with poor conditions
today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny across Texas today.
Temperatures will be warming from very cold conditions yesterday with most highs in the low to mid 50’s today.
Tonight lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30’s with most areas at or below freezing. Tomorrow temperatures
will warm by 5 to 7 degrees with most areas breaking the 60’s mark. Winds will be light to moderate today as conditions
continue to improve. Both days would traditionally be considered as low to moderate risk for pollen dispersal
and transport. However, large concentrations of pollen have been recorded recently especially in communities (Austin,
San Antonio) where air is draining off of the Edwards Plateau therefore there still remains a moderate to significant
risk of high pollen levels in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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