The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 14/Sunday, January 15 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 60’s. Winds to the north in Oklahoma will be from the northwest at 10 miles per hour. Winds will shift to a more northeasterly direction this afternoon. To the south across Texas a southwesterly to southerly wind pattern will be in place today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds today will be light to moderate from 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tonight, the northern areas will remain clear with temperatures in the upper 30’s along and south of the border region. Central Oklahoma will be in the lower 30’s. Across central Texas partly to mostly cloudy conditions will build in tonight with most low temperatures falling into the mid 30’s. Warmer conditions will exist in the southern most communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau with temperatures remaining in the 40’s. Winds will maintain a southerly flow at light levels. Most areas overnight will see winds around 5 miles per hour. Tomorrow, skies will remain cloudy to mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. High temperatures will return to the mid 60’s in most of these areas and whereas light winds characterized Saturday, on Sunday winds will become strong from the south. Most areas will see winds begin at 10 to 20 miles per hour but by the afternoon they will become stronger with many areas seeing gusts at 30 miles per hour. The winds will slacken to moderate levels tomorrow night. Skies will increase in cloudiness. In turn low temperatures will be warm with most areas in Texas remaining in the 50’s overnight. In southern Oklahoma nighttime temperatures will just barely get into the 40’s. With the southerly breezes and its humidity there is a 20% chance of showers in the eastern edge communities north towards the border with Oklahoma. The chance of showers will increase region wide on Monday.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from southern Oklahoma will move toward the north on southerly winds at light to moderate levels today and tonight but then more quickly on strong winds tomorrow. These wind direction will remain constant today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 60’s across the region today and tomorrow. Tonight temperatures will fall into the upper 30’s in the Arbuckle Mountains. Tomorrow warm conditions will extend into the evening hours with low temperatures in the upper 40’s and 50’s across the region. In the Arbuckle Mountains lows are expected to remain in the low 50’s. Winds from the tree populations will be flowing from the south towards the north over central Oklahoma into Kansas and on to eastern Nebraska and western Missouri. At upper elevations, the trajectories will move rapidly towards the upper mid-west and the western Great Lakes area. Sunday night there is an increasing chance (20%) of rain in the southern Oklahoma border region. This is the beginning of precipitation that will build into Monday.


OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Excellent conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be sunny today and warm across the region. Winds will be light to moderate today and relax tonight but then become strong tomorrow. Tonight southern Oklahoma will be cloud free but temperatures will be above freezing. Daytime temperatures tomorrow will be warming back to the mid 60’s. Warm conditions with strong winds and gusty conditions are perfect for release, entrainment and transport. The weather pattern is setting up characteristics that during previous years resulted in significant pollen transport out of the region. With a stable southerly flow communities to the north of the Texas as well as the southern Oklahoma tree populations will be heavily impacted. The trajectories show that the impact will be in north central Texas (Dallas/Fort Worth regional area), the border area between Oklahoma and Texas, as well as across eastern and central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, then northwards into eastern Nebraska and western Missouri. At upper elevations, if the pollen gets to those heights, we could see dispersal across the Great Lakes region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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