The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 16 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 16 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm today with cloudy skies in most areas. Winds will be strong from the southwest across Oklahoma and from the south across Texas. Gusts may be as high as 30 miles per hour in some areas. The communities surrounding the edge of the Edwards Plateau will see the chance of showers (20%) with the warm humid air from the south. In Oklahoma temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. To the south across Texas mid to upper 70s will be the rule today. To the south in communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau temperatures will get into the upper 70s whereas on the Plateau itself the mid-70s will be the rule. Tonight the chance of showers will remain in the edge communities, especially from Austin to San Antonio. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau which will dip into the mid to lower 40s across the Plateau. North in Oklahoma tonight lows will be in the low 40s. Winds will calm to light and moderate conditions from the southwest in the edge communities towards the north. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be out of the west to northwest. Tomorrow the north will remain partly cloudy while sunny to mostly sunny conditions will occur across Texas. Temperatures will be dropping with the edge communities remaining in the mid 70s but the Edwards Plateau will cool to the low 60s and upper 50s for the high. In addition areas in Oklahoma barely get to 50. Winds will have switched tonight to a dominant flow from the northwest direction by tomorrow morning. In Oklahoma winds will be strong with gusts to 35 miles per hour, whereas wind strength will decline towards the south. Across the Edwards Plateau winds are expected to only be from 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies will occur across the region and low temperatures will dip into the 20s and 30s. The only areas staying above freezing will be the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau along the southern edge.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau will once again move toward the northeast on southerly winds at moderate to strong levels today then start to decline into the evening. Tomorrow winds will switch to the north so that the trajectories at the lowest level will move towards the south turning late tonight into tomorrow morning. In Oklahoma, strong winds will occur tomorrow morning with gusts of 35 miles per hour possible The air mass trajectories at the surface reflect the dominant northeasterly pathway today and then they turn overnight back toward the south. Temperatures will be warm today, in the 70s across the entire region. Lows tonight will also be mild with temperatures in the low 30s and 40s. Tomorrow most areas will be in the 40s and 50s, tomorrow night the cooling will continue with lows in the lower 20s.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today but a moderate threat tomorrow with Excellent conditions today and moderate conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be cloudy today and tomorrow with warm conditions today but cooling tomorrow. Winds will be moderate to strong from the southwest, overnight winds will decline and shift by tomorrow coming out of the north. Tonight southern Oklahoma will be cloudy to mostly cloudy and in the low 40s. Daytime temperatures tomorrow will cool back to the 40s. With a stable southerly flow communities to the north of the Texas and southern Oklahoma tree populations will be heavily impacted. The trajectories show that the impact will be in north central Texas (Dallas/Fort Worth regional area) extending into eastern Oklahoma. Overnight as the winds switch and their strength declines the trajectories will switch to a more southerly direction, the border area between Oklahoma and Texas, as well as across eastern and central Oklahoma is at risk for a significant amount of pollen. Once the winds turn, any pollen entrained at lower levels will move back towards eastern Texas. Pollen that gets to high levels of the atmosphere may travel significant distance towards the northeast. At upper elevations, if the pollen gets to those heights, we could see dispersal across the Great Lakes region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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