The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Moderate |
Tulsa |
High |
St. Louis MO |
Moderate |
Date Issued: 16 January 2012
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Monday, January 16 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will be warm today with cloudy skies in most areas. Winds will be strong from the
southwest across Oklahoma and from the south across Texas. Gusts may be as high as 30 miles per hour in some areas.
The communities surrounding the edge of the Edwards Plateau will see the chance of showers (20%) with the warm
humid air from the south. In Oklahoma temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 70’s. To the south
across Texas mid to upper 70’s will be the rule today. To the south in communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau
temperatures will get into the upper 70’s whereas on the Plateau itself the mid-70’s will be the rule. Tonight
the chance of showers will remain in the edge communities, especially from Austin to San Antonio. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 50’s in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau which will dip into the mid to lower 40’s across
the Plateau. North in Oklahoma tonight lows will be in the low 40’s. Winds will calm to light and moderate conditions
from the southwest in the edge communities towards the north. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be out of the
west to northwest. Tomorrow the north will remain partly cloudy while sunny to mostly sunny conditions will occur
across Texas. Temperatures will be dropping with the edge communities remaining in the mid 70’s but the Edwards
Plateau will cool to the low 60’s and upper 50’s for the high. In addition areas in Oklahoma barely get to 50.
Winds will have switched tonight to a dominant flow from the northwest direction by tomorrow morning. In Oklahoma
winds will be strong with gusts to 35 miles per hour, whereas wind strength will decline towards the south. Across
the Edwards Plateau winds are expected to only be from 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies
will occur across the region and low temperatures will dip into the 20’s and 30’s. The only areas staying above
freezing will be the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau along the southern edge.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau will once again move toward the northeast
on southerly winds at moderate to strong levels today then start to decline into the evening. Tomorrow winds will
switch to the north so that the trajectories at the lowest level will move towards the south turning late tonight
into tomorrow morning. In Oklahoma, strong winds will occur tomorrow morning with gusts of 35 miles per hour possible
The air mass trajectories at the surface reflect the dominant northeasterly pathway today and then they turn overnight
back toward the south. Temperatures will be warm today, in the 70’s across the entire region. Lows tonight will
also be mild with temperatures in the low 30’s and 40’s. Tomorrow most areas will be in the 40’s and 50’s, tomorrow
night the cooling will continue with lows in the lower 20’s.
OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow
*** Excellent conditions for pollen release today but a moderate threat tomorrow with Excellent conditions
today and moderate conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be cloudy today and tomorrow
with warm conditions today but cooling tomorrow. Winds will be moderate to strong from the southwest, overnight
winds will decline and shift by tomorrow coming out of the north. Tonight southern Oklahoma will be cloudy to
mostly cloudy and in the low 40’s. Daytime temperatures tomorrow will cool back to the 40’s. With a stable southerly
flow communities to the north of the Texas and southern Oklahoma tree populations will be heavily impacted. The
trajectories show that the impact will be in north central Texas (Dallas/Fort Worth regional area) extending into
eastern Oklahoma. Overnight as the winds switch and their strength declines the trajectories will switch to a
more southerly direction, the border area between Oklahoma and Texas, as well as across eastern and central Oklahoma
is at risk for a significant amount of pollen. Once the winds turn, any pollen entrained at lower levels will
move back towards eastern Texas. Pollen that gets to high levels of the atmosphere may travel significant distance
towards the northeast. At upper elevations, if the pollen gets to those heights, we could see dispersal across
the Great Lakes region.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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