The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 17 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm to the south and cooling towards the north.. Today across northern Texas and Oklahoma high temperatures will only get into the 50’s and 40’s, with central Oklahoma in the low 40’s. Skies will be clear but winds will be strong from the north early, relaxing to moderate levels later in the day. Further south on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities the high temperatures will be back into the 70’s with sunny skies and moderate winds from the north and northwest. Tonight clear skies and cold air will push temperatures into the 20’s in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities temperatures will remain in the upper 30’s. Winds will remain moderate to light from the north to northeast across the region. The cold temperatures tonight will drop tomorrow’s high by 10 degrees or so, with highs across the southwestern edge communities in the upper 60’s. Across the Plateau and in surrounding communities to the east and north the high temperature will struggle to get into the mid to low 60’s. In the Dallas/Fort Worth area high temperatures will be in the low 50’s and in Oklahoma low 50’s and upper 40’s. During the day, winds will switch from the colder northerly direction to a south to southwest wind bringing warmer air back into the region. Winds to the south will be light to moderate whereas across Oklahoma stronger winds will occur. Northerly winds tomorrow will begin to switch during the late afternoon into the evening hours. Tomorrow night southerly winds will bring warmer conditions with most of the temperatures at or above freezing. Across Oklahoma nighttime lows will flirt with the freezing mark. To the south the edge communities along the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau will remain in the 40’s whereas the rest of the region will fall into the mid 30’s. Winds will remain from the south and southwest at moderate levels, whereas to the north winds will be from the south to southeast at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will move toward the south on northerly breezes today. Winds will start today as strong with upper speeds as much as 30 miles per hour. The north to south winds will continue tonight and into tomorrow. Tomorrow winds will reverse and northerly breeze will turn to southerly winds. As that happens, the trajectories will reverse circling back toward Oklahoma over northern Texas. The atmosphere appears to be stable and thus pollen released may be entrained, but at heights similar to the dispersal height. Without lift in the atmosphere much of the pollen will be removed from the atmosphere by impaction on other surfaces and vegetation. Temperatures across Southern Oklahoma will be only in the 40’s today and low 50’s tomorrow. Although the area will be relatively cold today skies will be sunny both today and tomorrow.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today but and tomorrow with moderate to poor conditions today and moderate conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be clear and sunny today and tomorrow but with thigh temperatures only in the 40’s today and barely getting into the low 50’s tomorrow. Winds will be strong from the north today and early this evening at moderate to light levels. Overnight winds will decline and shift by tomorrow coming out of the south. With a strong northerly flow communities to the north of the southern Oklahoma tree population will be relatively free from pollen today and tonight. The trajectories show that any pollen released will impact will impact areas south towards central Texas (Dallas/Fort Worth regional area). Overnight as the winds switch and their strength declines the trajectories will switch to a more northerly direction. The density of the atmosphere from the north will mean that the trajectories will move near the surface where significant impaction can occur. Cold conditions today will limit pollen release and tomorrow slightly warmer conditions may result in better conditions for pollination.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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