The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 17 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm to the south and cooling towards the north.. Today across northern Texas and Oklahoma high temperatures will only get into the 50s and 40s, with central Oklahoma in the low 40s. Skies will be clear but winds will be strong from the north early, relaxing to moderate levels later in the day. Further south on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities the high temperatures will be back into the 70s with sunny skies and moderate winds from the north and northwest. Tonight clear skies and cold air will push temperatures into the 20s in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities temperatures will remain in the upper 30s. Winds will remain moderate to light from the north to northeast across the region. The cold temperatures tonight will drop tomorrows high by 10 degrees or so, with highs across the southwestern edge communities in the upper 60s. Across the Plateau and in surrounding communities to the east and north the high temperature will struggle to get into the mid to low 60s. In the Dallas/Fort Worth area high temperatures will be in the low 50s and in Oklahoma low 50s and upper 40s. During the day, winds will switch from the colder northerly direction to a south to southwest wind bringing warmer air back into the region. Winds to the south will be light to moderate whereas across Oklahoma stronger winds will occur. Northerly winds tomorrow will begin to switch during the late afternoon into the evening hours. Tomorrow night southerly winds will bring warmer conditions with most of the temperatures at or above freezing. Across Oklahoma nighttime lows will flirt with the freezing mark. To the south the edge communities along the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau will remain in the 40s whereas the rest of the region will fall into the mid 30s. Winds will remain from the south and southwest at moderate levels, whereas to the north winds will be from the south to southeast at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau once again will move toward the southwest on northeast breezes today, then will rotate counterclockwise overnight eventually moving back to the east. This movement will occur over the next 24 to 36 hours. By tomorrow the primary wind direction will be from the southwest pushing entrained pollen towards eastern Texas. The atmosphere appears to be very buoyant and thus pollen released may be entrained at some height leading to long-distance travel. Temperatures across Texas will be warm today, in the 70s across the region. Lows tonight will be seasonal with the low in the 30s except for the southern edge communities where the low 40s will be the rule. Tomorrow most areas will be in the 50s and 60s.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Excellent conditions today and good conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be sunny and clear today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate across the Plateau today then relax tonight. The winds will change from the current northerly direction to a southerly direction tomorrow and tomorrow night. With the northerly winds will come cooler temperatures tonight then warm tomorrow night as the winds switch back coming from the south. With a stable northerly flow today and early tonight communities south of the Juniper populations will see significant concentrations. Those areas to the north of the Edwards Plateau will be less impacted by the smaller juniper population in southern Oklahoma. The areas north of the Arbuckle mountains should be free of pollen today and tomorrow morning. Wind will die down tomorrow afternoon as the direction switches back to a south to north flow. As the wind change continues Wednesday night may be setting areas north of the juniper population for a shot of pollen on Thursday.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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