The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 17 January 2012
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 17 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will be warm to the south and cooling towards the north.. Today across northern
Texas and Oklahoma high temperatures will only get into the 50’s and 40’s, with central Oklahoma in the low 40’s.
Skies will be clear but winds will be strong from the north early, relaxing to moderate levels later in the day.
Further south on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities the high temperatures will be back into
the 70’s with sunny skies and moderate winds from the north and northwest. Tonight clear skies and cold air will
push temperatures into the 20’s in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities temperatures
will remain in the upper 30’s. Winds will remain moderate to light from the north to northeast across the region.
The cold temperatures tonight will drop tomorrow’s high by 10 degrees or so, with highs across the southwestern
edge communities in the upper 60’s. Across the Plateau and in surrounding communities to the east and north the
high temperature will struggle to get into the mid to low 60’s. In the Dallas/Fort Worth area high temperatures
will be in the low 50’s and in Oklahoma low 50’s and upper 40’s. During the day, winds will switch from the colder
northerly direction to a south to southwest wind bringing warmer air back into the region. Winds to the south
will be light to moderate whereas across Oklahoma stronger winds will occur. Northerly winds tomorrow will begin
to switch during the late afternoon into the evening hours. Tomorrow night southerly winds will bring warmer conditions
with most of the temperatures at or above freezing. Across Oklahoma nighttime lows will flirt with the freezing
mark. To the south the edge communities along the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau will remain in the 40’s
whereas the rest of the region will fall into the mid 30’s. Winds will remain from the south and southwest at
moderate levels, whereas to the north winds will be from the south to southeast at moderate levels.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau once again will move toward the southwest
on northeast breezes today, then will rotate counterclockwise overnight eventually moving back to the east. This
movement will occur over the next 24 to 36 hours. By tomorrow the primary wind direction will be from the southwest
pushing entrained pollen towards eastern Texas. The atmosphere appears to be very buoyant and thus pollen released
may be entrained at some height leading to long-distance travel. Temperatures across Texas will be warm today,
in the 70’s across the region. Lows tonight will be seasonal with the low in the 30’s except for the southern
edge communities where the low 40’s will be the rule. Tomorrow most areas will be in the 50’s and 60’s.
OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent
conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Excellent conditions today and good conditions tomorrow for
entrainment and transport. Skies will be sunny and clear today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate across the
Plateau today then relax tonight. The winds will change from the current northerly direction to a southerly direction
tomorrow and tomorrow night. With the northerly winds will come cooler temperatures tonight then warm tomorrow
night as the winds switch back coming from the south. With a stable northerly flow today and early tonight communities
south of the Juniper populations will see significant concentrations. Those areas to the north of the Edwards Plateau
will be less impacted by the smaller juniper population in southern Oklahoma. The areas north of the Arbuckle
mountains should be free of pollen today and tomorrow morning. Wind will die down tomorrow afternoon as the direction
switches back to a south to north flow. As the wind change continues Wednesday night may be setting areas north
of the juniper population for a shot of pollen on Thursday.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page