The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 18 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 18 Ė TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal to the south with high temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities in the 60ís today. Towards the east Austin will only reach the upper 50ís and areas further north towards southern Oklahoma will be in the low 50ís. Skies will be sunny and winds will be light to moderate primarily from the south. In the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the north, draining off of the Edwards Plateau. Late in the afternoon most areas will begin to switch to a dominant southwesterly wind pattern. The flow from the southwest will remain overnight with clear to mostly clear skies and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above freezing. Winds will remain light. Tomorrow sunny skies will once again rule over the region. Winds will remain from the southwest, but wind speed will increase up to about 15 miles per hour. Temperatures will rise tomorrow with the low 60ís occurring across southern Oklahoma. Over Texas, the surrounding communities will range from the mid to upper 70ís whereas over the Plateau the mid 70ís will rule. Tomorrow night with the southerly breezes partly cloudy skies will build to the north and in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Urban areas from Austin towards San Antonio will see fog develop after midnight. The area over the Plateau will have mostly clear skies. Tomorrow nightís temperatures will remain warm with upper 30ís in southern Oklahoma, 40ís and 50ís from Dallas southwards circling the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau, and in the lower 40ís on the Plateau. Winds will remain light from the south, except in the western most regions where the wind will come out of the southwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau will once again move toward the northeast on southwesterly winds at moderate levels today then decline in strength overnight before building back to todayís strength tomorrow. Temperatures across southern Oklahoma will be in the low 50ís today and the low 60ís tomorrow. Conditions will be good today and very good tomorrow for pollen dispersal. The trajectories from southern Oklahoma move north to northeast on southwesterly winds over Tulsa and are turned towards the east over Missouri. Tomorrow winds will resume their direction and but with warmer conditions on the ground and in the trees. The air mass trajectories at the surface reflect the dominant northeasterly pathway on winds from the southwest today, tonight, and tomorrow into tomorrow night. and Temperatures will be warm today, in the 70ís across the entire region.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be clear and sunny today and tomorrow with cool conditions today, temperatures in the 50ís, but tomorrow warming into the 60ís. Winds will be moderate both days from southwest, overnight winds will decline but then build again tomorrow after sun-up. With a stable southerly flow communities to the north of Texas and the southern Oklahoma tree populations will be heavily impacted. The trajectories show their pathway towards the north, over Tulsa and then into Missouri before they are turned towards the east on a westerly wind. The trajectories from Texas will follow close behind on the same southwesterly winds towards the border area between Oklahoma and Texas then towards Missouri as well. Eastern and central Oklahoma are again at risk for a significant amount of pollen.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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