The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 18 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal to the south with high temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities in the 60’s today. Towards the east Austin will only reach the upper 50’s and areas further north towards southern Oklahoma will be in the low 50’s. Skies will be sunny and winds will be light to moderate primarily from the south. In the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the north, draining off of the Edwards Plateau. Late in the afternoon most areas will begin to switch to a dominant southwesterly wind pattern. The flow from the southwest will remain overnight with clear to mostly clear skies and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above freezing. Winds will remain light. Tomorrow sunny skies will once again rule over the region. Winds will remain from the southwest, but wind speed will increase up to about 15 miles per hour. Temperatures will rise tomorrow with the low 60’s occurring across southern Oklahoma. Over Texas, the surrounding communities will range from the mid to upper 70’s whereas over the Plateau the mid 70’s will rule. Tomorrow night with the southerly breezes partly cloudy skies will build to the north and in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Urban areas from Austin towards San Antonio will see fog develop after midnight. The area over the Plateau will have mostly clear skies. Tomorrow night’s temperatures will remain warm with upper 30’s in southern Oklahoma, 40’s and 50’s from Dallas southwards circling the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau, and in the lower 40’s on the Plateau. Winds will remain light from the south, except in the western most regions where the wind will come out of the southwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau once again will move toward the northeast on southwest breezes today, tonight, then tomorrow and by tomorrow night they will rotate counterclockwise a bit coming out of a more due south direction. Winds over the next two days will be light to moderate with 15 miles per hour be top sustained winds today and tomorrow. Tonight and tomorrow night the winds will decrease and become light. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and thus pollen released may be entrained at some height leading to long-distance travel. Temperatures across Texas will be seasonal today, in the 60’s across the region and climb into the 70’s tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the 30’s and low 40’s from north to south. Tomorrow night temperatures will increase by 10 degrees in most areas with 40’s and 50’s expected. The trajectories show the winds moving northeast across the state, crossing over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas before moving over parts of Missouri.


OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions today and building to Excellent conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be sunny and clear today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate across the Plateau today then relax tonight. The winds will remain from the southwest direction over the forecast period. With the southerly winds warm temperatures and a more humid atmosphere will occur. Tomorrow night in the edge communities after midnight foggy conditions may build as a result. With a stable southwesterly flow today and tomorrow communities north of the Juniper populations will see significant concentrations. Areas that include the southern Oklahoma population of trees will be in the pathway of entrained pollen from Texas. The wind trajectories that pollen transport and deposition will put communities in north Texas, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and Missouri are at risk for significant concentrations in the atmosphere. Those areas to the south of the Edwards Plateau will be less impacted by the smaller juniper populations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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