The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate

Tulsa

Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 19 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm with most areas in the mid to upper 70s. To the north in southern Oklahoma the temperatures will cool with the high;s in the mid to upper 60s. The skies will be partly cloudy to the north in Oklahoma then sunny across the rest of Texas. Far to the west this afternoon partly cloudy conditions will return but will not last long as tonight mostly clear skies will occur across the Edwards Plateau. Today winds will be from the west to the north and from the southwest across Texas. Winds will be light to moderate, 5 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight temperatures will drop into the mid to low 30s in Oklahoma while in Texas the northern areas and over the Edwards Plateau low temperatures will be in the 40s. In the surrounding areas low temperatures will be in the 50s with enough humidity to produce patchy fog in these communities. Winds will remain from the southwest over most of the areas across Texas. To the north winds will be either light and variable or light from the east. Tomorrow mixed conditions will result in partly cloudy skies across Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau the clouds will dissipate towards the afternoon. In the surrounding communities mostly cloudy conditions will exist with morning fog common. Temperatures tomorrow will be warm. To the north and in the surrounding communities high temperatures will be in the low to high 70s. Temperatures will increase towards the south. On the Edwards Plateau high temperatures will reach into the lower 80s. Winds will increase tomorrow with base winds moderate. In the surrounding communities and north towards the Dallas/Fort Worth regional area gusts may reach as high as 35 miles per hour. Tomorrow night in Oklahoma temperatures will return into the 20s whereas lows will be much warmer to the south across Texas. Skies will be mostly clear except for over the urban areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy conditions will occur. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s across the Plateau. In the surrounding communities lows will only fall to the low 50s. Winds tomorrow night will be moderate from the northwest in central Oklahoma and from the northeast along the border with Texas. Across Texas winds will remain from the southwest at moderate levels and from the west over the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the southern Oklahoma will initially move to the south on northerly winds, then tonight the winds will switch back to a southwesterly wind moving the trajectories back towards the north and northeast tomorrow. Tomorrow nights the winds will switch once again coming from the north. Today winds will be light to moderate decreasing to light and variable conditions tonight. Tomorrow winds will increase to moderate levels then maintain light to moderate levels tomorrow night. The atmosphere does not appear to be particularly buoyant so pollen released from the trees will maintain a similar elevation. Temperatures will be warm today, in the 60s across southern Oklahoma and reaching into the lower 70s tomorrow. Lows tonight will be cold in the low 30s and then into the 20s tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be partly cloudy today and tomorrow with warm conditions today rising to very warm conditions tomorrow. Winds will be moderate from the southwest, overnight winds will decline and become light and variable. Tonight southern Oklahoma will be partly cloudy and stay above freezing in the mid 30s. Daytime temperatures today will be in the mid 60s, then tomorrow will warm to the lower 70s. Today winds will initially be from the west then switch to coming from the north. This will move southern Oklahoma pollen south over northern Texas. Tonight winds will turn once again back to a predominant southwesterly flow. Pollen tomorrow will move back towards the northeast. With a stable southwesterly flow, communities to the north of the Texas and southern Oklahoma tree populations will be impacted. The trajectories show that the impact will be in north central Texas (Dallas/Fort Worth regional area) extending into eastern Oklahoma. The border area between Oklahoma and Texas, as well as across eastern and central Oklahoma is at risk for a significant amount of pollen.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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