The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth




San Antonio



Date Issued: 19 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 19 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm with most areas in the mid to upper 70s. To the north in southern Oklahoma the temperatures will cool with the high;s in the mid to upper 60s. The skies will be partly cloudy to the north in Oklahoma then sunny across the rest of Texas. Far to the west this afternoon partly cloudy conditions will return but will not last long as tonight mostly clear skies will occur across the Edwards Plateau. Today winds will be from the west to the north and from the southwest across Texas. Winds will be light to moderate, 5 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight temperatures will drop into the mid to low 30s in Oklahoma while in Texas the northern areas and over the Edwards Plateau low temperatures will be in the 40s. In the surrounding areas low temperatures will be in the 50s with enough humidity to produce patchy fog in these communities. Winds will remain from the southwest over most of the areas across Texas. To the north winds will be either light and variable or light from the east. Tomorrow mixed conditions will result in partly cloudy skies across Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau the clouds will dissipate towards the afternoon. In the surrounding communities mostly cloudy conditions will exist with morning fog common. Temperatures tomorrow will be warm. To the north and in the surrounding communities high temperatures will be in the low to high 70s. Temperatures will increase towards the south. On the Edwards Plateau high temperatures will reach into the lower 80s. Winds will increase tomorrow with base winds moderate. In the surrounding communities and north towards the Dallas/Fort Worth regional area gusts may reach as high as 35 miles per hour. Tomorrow night in Oklahoma temperatures will return into the 20s whereas lows will be much warmer to the south across Texas. Skies will be mostly clear except for over the urban areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy conditions will occur. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s across the Plateau. In the surrounding communities lows will only fall to the low 50s. Winds tomorrow night will be moderate from the northwest in central Oklahoma and from the northeast along the border with Texas. Across Texas winds will remain from the southwest at moderate levels and from the west over the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau once again will move toward the northeast on southwest breezes today, tonight, tomorrow. Tomorrow night the winds will rotate clockwise for a mostly westerly flow. Winds over the next two days will be light to moderate with 15 miles per hour be top sustained winds. Tomorrow afternoon many areas in northern Texas and along the Edwards Plateau it will become gusty with speeds of 25 miles per hour or more. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and thus pollen released may be entrained at some height leading to long-distance travel. Temperatures across Texas will be unseasonably warm today, in the upper 70s today across the region and climbing into the 80s tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s and low 50s from north to south. Tomorrow night temperatures will increase by 10 degrees in most areas with 40s and 50s expected. The trajectories show the winds moving northeast across the state on a continuation of southwesterly winds. The wind trajectories, crossing over eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions today and building to Excellent conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be sunny and clear today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate across the Plateau today then relax tonight. The winds will remain from the southwest direction over the forecast period. Temperatures will be warm both today and increasingly warm tomorrow. With the southerly winds, warm temperatures, a more humid atmosphere will occur. Tomorrow night in the edge communities after midnight foggy conditions may build as a result lasting into tomorrow morning. With a stable southwesterly flow today and tomorrow communities north of the Juniper populations will see significant concentrations. Areas that include the southern Oklahoma population of trees will be in the pathway of entrained pollen from Texas. The wind trajectories that pollen transport and deposition will put communities in north Texas, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and Missouri are at risk for significant concentrations in the atmosphere. Those areas to the south of the Edwards Plateau will be less impacted by the smaller juniper populations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.





Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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