The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 20 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 20 TX/OK: Across the region today very warm weather will occur today, but then cool into tomorrow. In most areas the day will start today with mostly cloudy skies but will clear as noon approaches. Humidity will be high to the south with the chance of fog in many of the southern surrounding edge communities. Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau will be in the low 80s today. In the edge communities and northwards will see the 70s clear into southern Oklahoma. Cooler conditions will be in central Oklahoma and northward. Winds today will be from the southwest at moderate to light levels. On the western portion of the Edwards Plateau winds will turn from the west later this afternoon. Tonight partly cloudy skies will build back except on the Edwards Plateau where they will remain mostly clear. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s in southern Oklahoma. Across Texas, northern regions and the Edwards Plateau will be in the mid to upper 30s, in the surrounding edge communities lows will stay in the 50s. Tomorrow the region will be sunny to mostly sunny across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will again climb but will stay mostly in the 60s with the southern edge communities in the 70s. Winds will switch tomorrow and come from the north to northeast but at lite levels. Tomorrow night skies will once again become cloudy, and winds will switch back to a southerly direction. With the southerly wind, low temperatures will be very mild with most areas in the 40s and low 50s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the southern Oklahoma will initially move to the south on northerly winds that will occur today into tonight. Tomorrow the region will be dominated by the northerly winds. Warm conditions today will be cooled by about 10 degrees tomorrow with light northerly winds. Then tomorrow night southerly winds will once again become established moving the trajectories back to the north. The atmosphere is moderately buoyant so pollen released from the trees will maintain a good chance of being entrained and then move some distance. Temperatures will be warm today, in the 70s across southern Oklahoma and reaching only into the upper 40s tomorrow. Lows tonight will be cold in the upper 20s and then into the mid 30s tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Poor Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow, Good conditions today and poor conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be partly cloudy today and tomorrow with warm conditions today giving way to cold conditions from the north tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate from the south but turn coming from the north overnight. Over the period of forecasting winds will be very lite. Tonight southern Oklahoma will be partly cloudy and be below freezing in the mid 20s. Daytime temperatures today will be in the low 70s, then tomorrow will be much lower with temperatures in the upper 40s. Today winds will initially be from the south then switch to coming from the north. This will move southern Oklahoma pollen south over northern Texas towards the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night winds will turn once again back to a predominant southerly flow. Pollen tomorrow will move southward towards Texas then eventually on Saturday night the southerly winds return with the atmosphere flowing northward. The trajectories show that the greatest impact will be in north central Texas Dallas/Fort Worth regional area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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