The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

High

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 20 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday, January 20 TX/OK: Across the region today very warm weather will occur today, but then cool into tomorrow. In most areas the day will start today with mostly cloudy skies but will clear as noon approaches. Humidity will be high to the south with the chance of fog in many of the southern surrounding edge communities. Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau will be in the low 80s today. In the edge communities and northwards will see the 70s clear into southern Oklahoma. Cooler conditions will be in central Oklahoma and northward. Winds today will be from the southwest at moderate to light levels. On the western portion of the Edwards Plateau winds will turn from the west later this afternoon. Tonight partly cloudy skies will build back except on the Edwards Plateau where they will remain mostly clear. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s in southern Oklahoma. Across Texas, northern regions and the Edwards Plateau will be in the mid to upper 30s, in the surrounding edge communities lows will stay in the 50s. Tomorrow the region will be sunny to mostly sunny across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will again climb but will stay mostly in the 60s with the southern edge communities in the 70s. Winds will switch tomorrow and come from the north to northeast but at lite levels. Tomorrow night skies will once again become cloudy, and winds will switch back to a southerly direction. With the southerly wind, low temperatures will be very mild with most areas in the 40s and low 50s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau once again will move towards the northeast then almost due east. The winds at upper levels (>250 m) move on stronger winds than will occur at the surface. The atmosphere is buoyant and thus some pollen will get entrained and travel some distances. The weather across the area will be warm today with upper 70s and 80s common across the region. Winds will remain lite today and tonight, although they will shift from coming out of the southwest to moving out of the north. Tomorrow temperatures will cool a good 10 degrees with the push of colder air out of the north. Winds will be lite tomorrow as well. Tomorrow night low temperatures will be mild, 40s and 50s, under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow night winds will once again switch back to coming out of the south and southeast coming around towards the morning from the southwest.


OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be mostly sunny to clear today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate across the region. However, temperatures will be very warm with most readings in the 80s. The winds will remain from the southwest direction today but switch overnight, coming from the north then back to the south tomorrow night.. With very warm temperatures and a stable southwesterly flow today, but at lite conditions, communities north and east of the Juniper populations will see significant concentrations. Pollen from the southern Oklahoma population of trees will move south on the northerly winds that will come in tonight, this pollen will move towards the pathway of entrained pollen from Texas. The trajectories move towards the east at that point. Areas in eastern Texas and areas due east of Texas may get some pollen. The lite winds will reduce the overall amount of pollen entrained in the atmosphere.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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