The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
High |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 20 January 2012
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Friday, January 20 – TX/OK:
Across the region today very warm weather will occur today, but then cool into tomorrow. In most areas the day
will start today with mostly cloudy skies but will clear as noon approaches. Humidity will be high to the south
with the chance of fog in many of the southern surrounding edge communities. Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau
will be in the low 80’s today. In the edge communities and northwards will see the 70’s clear into southern Oklahoma.
Cooler conditions will be in central Oklahoma and northward. Winds today will be from the southwest at moderate
to light levels. On the western portion of the Edwards Plateau winds will turn from the west later this afternoon.
Tonight partly cloudy skies will build back except on the Edwards Plateau where they will remain mostly clear.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 20’s in southern Oklahoma. Across Texas, northern regions and the Edwards Plateau
will be in the mid to upper 30’s, in the surrounding edge communities lows will stay in the 50’s. Tomorrow the
region will be sunny to mostly sunny across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will again climb but will stay mostly
in the 60’s with the southern edge communities in the 70’s. Winds will switch tomorrow and come from the north
to northeast but at lite levels. Tomorrow night skies will once again become cloudy, and winds will switch back
to a southerly direction. With the southerly wind, low temperatures will be very mild with most areas in the 40’s
and low 50’s.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau once again will move towards the northeast
then almost due east. The winds at upper levels (>250 m) move on stronger winds than will occur at the surface.
The atmosphere is buoyant and thus some pollen will get entrained and travel some distances. The weather across
the area will be warm today with upper 70’s and 80’s common across the region. Winds will remain lite today and
tonight, although they will shift from coming out of the southwest to moving out of the north. Tomorrow temperatures
will cool a good 10 degrees with the push of colder air out of the north. Winds will be lite tomorrow as well.
Tomorrow night low temperatures will be mild, 40’s and 50’s, under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow night winds
will once again switch back to coming out of the south and southeast coming around towards the morning from the
southwest.
OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent
conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and
transport. Skies will be mostly sunny to clear today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate across the region.
However, temperatures will be very warm with most readings in the 80’s. The winds will remain from the southwest
direction today but switch overnight, coming from the north then back to the south tomorrow night.. With very
warm temperatures and a stable southwesterly flow today, but at lite conditions, communities north and east of
the Juniper populations will see significant concentrations. Pollen from the southern Oklahoma population of trees
will move south on the northerly winds that will come in tonight, this pollen will move towards the pathway of
entrained pollen from Texas. The trajectories move towards the east at that point. Areas in eastern Texas and
areas due east of Texas may get some pollen. The lite winds will reduce the overall amount of pollen entrained
in the atmosphere.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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