The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 21 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday/Sunday, January 21/22 Ė TX/OK: Across the region today temperatures will cool from Fridayís very warm conditions. Skies will remain sunny to the north and mostly sunny across Texas. Winds will be from the north for most of today at light conditions in Oklahoma and light to moderate winds speeds across Texas. Temperatures in Oklahoma and the border region with Texas will be in the 40ís grading towards the upper 50ís in the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. Further south on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communityís temperatures will be in the 60ís with San Antonio flirting with 70 degrees. Towards the late afternoon winds will begin to turn coming out of the south in most areas and out of the east in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Those eastern winds will bring humidity and after midnight result in fog laying into the edge communities. In Oklahoma and the far reaches of the Edwards Plateau a more southwesterly flow will take over with winds increasing to moderate levels. Moderate winds will begin early tomorrow from the west and southwest. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30ís north of the Oklahoma/Texas border and 40ís to the south, with areas of the western Edwards Plateau in the low 40ís and the other regions milder. Winds will be strong to the north and moderately strong over the rest of the region. Late in the afternoon winds will begin to turn coming from the northwest then from the north later in the evening. Tomorrow temperatures will once again be in the high 70ís reaching the 80 degree mark around the San Antonio metro area. Tomorrow night clear and mostly clear conditions will occur with low temperatures in the mid 30ís in the area of the Oklahoma tree population as well as the western Edwards Plateau communities. Low temperatures in the surrounding communities and north towards Dallas/Fort Worth will be in the low 40ís. .

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will initially move the atmosphere towards the south on very light winds. During the afternoon those winds will switch to a predominant flow moving air masses towards the north. The winds will be moderate to strong overnight and maintain or even build their strength during the day on Sunday. The region will be cool to cold today with conditions in the upper 40ís. However skies will be sunny and tomorrow highs will climb back into the upper 60ís. The south to north flow will be maintained until tomorrow night when northerly winds will drive south reversing the wind direction.

OUTLOOK: *** Poor to Moderate Threat today and Signigicant Threat Tomorrow *** Poor to moderate conditions for pollen release today and Excellent conditions tomorrow, moderate conditions today and good conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be sunny today and partly cloudy tomorrow with conditions warming from highs in the mid 40ís today to mid-60ís tomorrow. Winds will be light from the north then switch, coming from the south, tonight and tomorrow. The switch in direction will bring stronger winds with gusts tomorrow as strong as 40 to 45 miles per hour. Entrainment and travel could be significant tomorrow pushing pollen into the central to northern Great Plains. Across Oklahoma, pollen from the Texas population will intersect and interact with pollen from the southern Oklahoma trees that area pollinating as they move north.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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