The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

High

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Saturday/Sunday, January 21/22 Ė TX/OK: Across the region today temperatures will cool from Fridayís very warm conditions. Skies will remain sunny to the north and mostly sunny across Texas. Winds will be from the north for most of today at light conditions in Oklahoma and light to moderate winds speeds across Texas. Temperatures in Oklahoma and the border region with Texas will be in the 40ís grading towards the upper 50ís in the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. Further south on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communityís temperatures will be in the 60ís with San Antonio flirting with 70 degrees. Towards the late afternoon winds will begin to turn coming out of the south in most areas and out of the east in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Those eastern winds will bring humidity and after midnight result in fog laying into the edge communities. In Oklahoma and the far reaches of the Edwards Plateau a more southwesterly flow will take over with winds increasing to moderate levels. Moderate winds will begin early tomorrow from the west and southwest. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30ís north of the Oklahoma/Texas border and 40ís to the south, with areas of the western Edwards Plateau in the low 40ís and the other regions milder. Winds will be strong to the north and moderately strong over the rest of the region. Late in the afternoon winds will begin to turn coming from the northwest then from the north later in the evening. Tomorrow temperatures will once again be in the high 70ís reaching the 80 degree mark around the San Antonio metro area. Tomorrow night clear and mostly clear conditions will occur with low temperatures in the mid 30ís in the area of the Oklahoma tree population as well as the western Edwards Plateau communities. Low temperatures in the surrounding communities and north towards Dallas/Fort Worth will be in the low 40ís.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau will initially move to the south and then turn once again tonight and tomorrow back and flow to the north. The flow to the north will occur tomorrow during the day but then turn tomorrow night southward once again as northerly winds take over once more. Today temperatures will cool from Fridayís very warm conditions with a 10 to 15 degree drop in most areas associated with the winds from the north. With such a stretch of warm temperatures tonights lows will be mild with few communities dropping below 40 degrees. Tomorrow warm temperatures will return as the southerly winds pick up once more. Temperatures are expected across Texas to be in the 70ís with the San Antonio reaching for 80 degrees. Overnight winds will shift once again coming from the north. Low temperatures tomorrow night will once again be above freezing but cooler than Saturday with lows in the low 40ís and mid to upper 30ís


OUTLOOK: *** Significant Threat today and Significant Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with excellent conditions today and tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be sunny and mostly clear today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate from the north across the region. This afternoon the winds will turn from the north and start coming from the south to southwest. On Sunday the winds will start from the southwest then switch back to a flow from the north. With cooler temperatures than Friday and a stable northerly flow today communities to the south of the Juniper populations will see significant concentrations. Winds will turn this evening potentially bringing entrained pollen back towards the north. In Texas this would bring late concentrations across the Edwards Plateau towards the Dallas/Fort Worth regional area. Pollen from the southern Oklahoma population of trees will move south on the northerly winds then turn over northern Texas as the wind switches. Sunday the southerly winds start to swing around towards the west and eventually coming out of the north again tomorrow night. Wind trajectories will transport and deposit pollen across central Texas then into Oklahoma resulting in a high risk for significant concentrations in the atmosphere over the entire region. There will be excellent conditions for pollination with the warm temperatures and winds in the moderate to gusty range conditions should provide ample opportunities for entrainment and travel.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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