The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 23 – TX/OK: Across the region today may be the last day of the stretch of sunny skies and warm to very warm conditions. Skies today will be mostly sunny across Texas with partly cloudy skies across Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 70’s south of Dallas/Fort Worth across the Edwards Plateau and throughout the edge communities. To the north, the juniper trees of southern Oklahoma should be in the low 60’s today. Winds will be light and variable to the north and southward into northern Texas. Winds will be from the southwest over the plateau and build towards 10 to 15 miles per hour during the day. Tonight clouds begin to move in with partly cloudy conditions expected region wide. Temperatures will remain warm with the edge communities only falling into the lower 50’s, the Plateau being in the mid to low 40’s, and areas in northern Texas and Oklahoma dropping into the upper 30’s. Winds will be from the east and southeast in most areas. The return of southerly winds will bring a 20% chance of showers to the edge communities tonight after midnight. Tomorrow Oklahoma and north Texas will see partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. From Dallas/Fort Worth southward cloudy skies will prevail and there is a 60% top 70% chance of rain in the edge communities of the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau that chance of showers drops to 40% to 50% today. High temperatures will remain in the 60’s in most places with the southern edge communities even flirting with 70 degrees. In the morning the greatest chance is for showers, whereas later in the day thunderstorms and showers will continue to develop. Winds will be moderate from the southeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tuesday night Cloudy conditions and rain will occur across the region. Low temperatures will remain warm with most areas in the 40’s upwards to the 60’s in San Antonio and 50’s in Austin. Winds will remain from the east off of the Plateau region, where winds will be from the north and northeast. Winds will remain moderate at levels from 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will move due north on southeasterly winds today, tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be light today gaining in strength tomorrow with gusts of upwards of 30 miles per hour tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures today will be in the lower 60’s in southern Oklahoma and upper 50’s across central Oklahoma. The atmosphere towards the north will be relatively stable until they get downwind where they become more buoyant. The region will be warm today with temperatures in the 70’s across Texas and light winds. Tomorrow, however, rain and cooler weather will begin to build across southern Texas with significant rain showers tomorrow and tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK: ***High Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today but Poor conditions tomorrow, good conditions today and poor conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Skies will be partly cloudy today and partly cloudy tomorrow with conditions stable. Highs will be in the low 60’s today and tomorrow. Winds will be light from the south today building overnight and into tomorrow. Gusty conditions will occur tomorrow with winds building to the 30 miles per hour level. Entrainment and travel will be building tomorrow pushing pollen into the central to northern Great Plains.Across Oklahoma, pollen from the Texas population will intersect and interact with pollen from the southern Oklahoma trees that area pollinating as they move north.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page