The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 23 – TX/OK: Across the region today may be the last day of the stretch of sunny skies and warm to very warm conditions. Skies today will be mostly sunny across Texas with partly cloudy skies across Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 70’s south of Dallas/Fort Worth across the Edwards Plateau and throughout the edge communities. To the north, the juniper trees of southern Oklahoma should be in the low 60’s today. Winds will be light and variable to the north and southward into northern Texas. Winds will be from the southwest over the plateau and build towards 10 to 15 miles per hour during the day. Tonight clouds begin to move in with partly cloudy conditions expected region wide. Temperatures will remain warm with the edge communities only falling into the lower 50’s, the Plateau being in the mid to low 40’s, and areas in northern Texas and Oklahoma dropping into the upper 30’s. Winds will be from the east and southeast in most areas. The return of southerly winds will bring a 20% chance of showers to the edge communities tonight after midnight. Tomorrow Oklahoma and north Texas will see partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. From Dallas/Fort Worth southward cloudy skies will prevail and there is a 60% top 70% chance of rain in the edge communities of the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau that chance of showers drops to 40% to 50% today. High temperatures will remain in the 60’s in most places with the southern edge communities even flirting with 70 degrees. In the morning the greatest chance is for showers, whereas later in the day thunderstorms and showers will continue to develop. Winds will be moderate from the southeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tuesday night Cloudy conditions and rain will occur across the region. Low temperatures will remain warm with most areas in the 40’s upwards to the 60’s in San Antonio and 50’s in Austin. Winds will remain from the east off of the Plateau region, where winds will be from the north and northeast. Winds will remain moderate at levels from 10 to 15 miles per hour.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move almost due north on southerly winds today. Other areas have light winds from the east after starting the day from the northeast, but over the Edwards Plateau a moderate southwesterly flow will push any pollen entrained in the atmosphere northwards across Oklahoma and into Nebraska. Today temperatures will be in the lower 70’s across the Plateau with low to mid 70’s in the surrounding communities. Skies will be mostly sunny heading towards partly cloudy conditions into the late afternoon and evening. Winds will switch overnight, coming from the east and then from the southeast. The southeasterly winds will bring warm humid air resulting in partly cloudy skies and an increasing chance of showers into Tuesday. High tomorrow will cool into the 60’s and there will be a significant chance of showers in the morning and then developing again in the afternoon with thunderstorms. Winds will be moderate from the southeast. Tomorrow night cloudy conditions and a significant chance of rain across the region is forecast. Low temperatures will be mild and during the night time hours winds will swing around coming from the east except for a northeasterly wind over the western Plateau.

OUTLOOK: ***Significant Threat today and Poor Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today with excellent conditions for entrainment and transport. Tomorrow significant rain is expected which should severely restrict and entrainment and travel . Skies will be mostly sunny clear today but partly cloudy skies will build tonight. Winds will be light from the southwest across the Edwards Plateau region. This evening skies will become partly cloudy and winds will switch coming out of the east to southeast. With the wind shift, humidity will rise and in many areas of the edge communities the chance of rain will begin to increase. Tuesday will start with the chance of showers which will increase during the day and into Tuesday night. With temperatures still in the 70’s today and a moderate southwesterly wind blowing northward communities north of the Juniper populations will see significant concentrations. With winds coming in from the east the Plateau winds, which should have pollen entrained will ride over the top and continue to push towards Oklahoma going into this evening. Tomorrow, the winds will have brought in enough warm humid air that the chance of rain increases significantly and the chance of showers in the morning and afternoon increases significantly. Tomorrow night a significant chance of rain will exist across Texas. As the humidity and showers move into the area, the act of precipitation will cleanse the atmosphere from its pollen load.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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