The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 24 – TX/OK: Across the region today moisture will be building and the chance of rain and thunderstorms will carry forward today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Most of the region will have a 50% to 60% chance of precipitation. Temperatures will be in the 60’s today with winds at moderate levels from the southeast. Tonight skies will remain cloudy with significant moisture, 90% to 100% chance of rain, across northern Texas and in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Edwards Plateau the chance of rain will be 80% in Junction, 70% in Sonora, and 50% in San Angelo. The overnight low temperatures will be in the 50’s in central and northern Texas with lows in the 40’s across the Plateau. Southern Oklahoma will be in the low 40’s as well. Winds will switch from the southeast to east coming out of the north at moderate levels. Tomorrow cloudy skies and rain will again be in the forecast. The chance of rain will remain high in the surrounding communities northward toward Oklahoma. On the Plateau and especially towards the west and south, the chance of rain begins to tail off. Winds will be from the north at moderate to strong levels. The northerly breezes will bring with them cooler temperatures. The highest temperatures will be in the surrounding communities but still remain in the low to mid 60’s. Tomorrow night a lingering chance of rain will remain across the region (20% to 30%). Temperatures will be in the 40’s from Dallas south around the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau temperatures will be in the mid 30’s as will the population in southern Oklahoma.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move towards the northwest on southeasterly winds at moderate levels before moving southwest on northeasterly winds tonight. Moisture will occur throughout the region today with rain, showers and thunderstorms. Winds today will be mostly at moderate levels from the southeast. Tonight the winds will begin to shift back coming out of the northeast and eventually from the north. Tomorrow showers and rain will continue across the entire region. Temperatures will be cool compared to recent high’s but will seem moderate for winter temperatures. The high temperatures will be in the 50’s to low 60’s across the Edwards Plateau region. Winds will continue from the north at moderate levels with some gusts in areas of upwards of 25 miles per hour. Tomorrow night the rains will begin to taper off. Temperatures will drop into the low 40’s and mid to upper 30’s. Winds will remain from the northwest at moderate to strong levels.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Skies will be cloudy for the next two days. Rain, thunderstorms, and showers will occur throughout the region over the forecast period. During periods of rain any pollen that might be released will be washed out of the atmosphere. Therefore the forecast is for low threats today and tomorrow. The washing of the pollen out of the atmosphere will provide a good test of the pollination season in general. Signs of pollination beginning to slow down are beginning to be detected. After the next two days of rain will be a good test to see how strong and at what concentration pollen will reappear.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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