The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 25 – TX/OK: Across the region today moisture will be wet from region wide showers and thunderstorms. Skies will be cloudy and winds will be from the north to northeast to the north and more from the northwest and north in the edge communities and on the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate today and tonight. Temperatures will be building and the chance obe in the mid 40’s and lower 50’s in Oklahoma. South of the Oklahoma border temperatures will be in the low 60’s and upper 60’s to low 70’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Across the Plateau temperatures will fall back into the upper 40’s to mid 50’s. Tonight skies will remain cloudy and a chance of rain remains, although its probability will be decreasing. Winds will stay from the north until the Edwards Plateau is reach. There the winds will come from a more northwesterly direction. Winds will be moderate throughout the night. Tomorrow mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies will cover the region. A chance of rain will remain from Austin north to the border with Oklahoma excluding the Edwards Plateau region. On the Plateau skies will be partly cloudy and will start to dry out. Temperatures will rebound back into the mid to upper 50’s with San Antonio in the lower 60’s. Winds will remain from the northwest but increase to levels in the 10 to 20 mile per hour range with gusts above that and common. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will move back into the area and temperatures will drop back into the 30’s in most areas. The northerly winds will remain although they will not be as strong as occurred during the day.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move south today on northerly breezes that will be moderate. A significant chance of rain will occur throughout the region today and into tonight. The chance of rain will begin to dissipate tonight. Skies will be cloudy and temperatures will be mild with most areas in the 40’s. Tomorrow lingering showers will occur off of the Plateau, north towards Oklahoma. Temperatures will stay cool tomorrow with most highs in the 50’s. Winds will remain from the north but at moderate levels and gusts towards 30 miles per hour. Tomorrow night will build towards partly cloudy skies again. By tomorrow night the chance of rain will have left the area, temperatures will decline into the 30’s in most regions, but the winds will remain from the north at moderate levels.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Skies will be cloudy for the next two days. Rain, thunderstorms, and showers will occur throughout the region today, tonight and into tomorrow. During periods of rain any pollen that might be released will be washed out of the atmosphere. Therefore the forecast is for low threats today and tomorrow. The washing of the pollen out of the atmosphere will provide a good test of the pollination season in general. Signs of pollination beginning to slow down are beginning to be detected. In addition, pollen types that are more spring like are beginning to be recorded in the pollen counts. After the next two days of rain will be a good test to see how strong and at what concentration pollen will reappear.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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