The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 27 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be improving from the recent rains. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy skies will occur today and tonight with temperatures today returning to the 60’s. Winds will be from the south in the morning at 15 to 25 miles per hour then begin to switch to a northwesterly direction in the afternoon in central Oklahoma. The switch in winds will occur progressively towards the south throughout the evening and into tomorrow over the entire region. Tonight temperatures will be in the low 20’s in central Oklahoma and the low 30’s along the border with Texas. Winds will be maintained at moderate levels tonight. Today across Texas, skies will be sunny with temperatures pushing back into the upper 60’s and low 70’s. From central Texas southward, especially over the Edwards Plateau, winds will remain at moderate levels this morning, but increase their strength during the afternoon becoming strong and switching to a more southwesterly flow. Skies tonight will be mostly clear with temperatures over the Plateau in the mid 30’s and in the surrounding edge communities in the mid to low 40’s. Overnight most areas will see the change in winds so by tomorrow morning winds will be from the north, once again, with much cooler temperatures. In Oklahoma tomorrow skies will be partly cloudy with high temperatures only reaching the upper 40’s. Winds will be light and variable. To the south across the Edwards Plateau partly cloudy skies will prevail with high temperatures held to the low 50’s. Winds will be from the north at moderate levels. Even in the surrounding communities high temperatures will only climb to the mid to upper 50’s under mostly sunny to sunny skies. Tomorrow afternoon winds will become fierce with gusts at 25 to 30 miles per hour. Overnight partly cloudy skies will return to the area with temperatures in the mid to lower 30’s. Winds will be from the south to southeast across the Plateau and maintaining a more northerly direction in the surrounding communities north toward Oklahoma.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move north today on southerly breezes that will switch to a more southwesterly direction during the afternoon. Winds will continue to flow towards the northeast until the overall flow switches towards the southeast on north to northwesterly winds. Temperatures will be seasonally warm with highs in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s in most areas. The atmosphere will be buoyant and light during the day. Tonight’s temperatrures will be in the 30’s and 40’s maintaining themselves above freezing. Tomorrow high temperatures will be in the 50’s across the region and winds will be moderate from the north. The cold air will also bring more dense atmospheric conditions, but the winds will be very strong in some areas. Tomorrow night the cold air in the region will bring the low temperatures into the lower 30’s across Texas and well below freezing to the north in Oklahoma.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport today but poor conditions tomorrow. Skies will clear today and tomorrow with warm temperatures across the region today. Tomorrow a push of cold air from the north will bring high temperatures across the region into the 50’s. Today the air is buoyant and winds will be moderate. Any pollen that is left to be released should have a good chance to do it. Across the region the last week has shown the appearance of pollen types that are associated with spring blooming plants. This usually is a strong signal that the Juniperus pollen season has ended. However, this is at least a full week if not two ahead of schedule. With the rains two days ago it will be interesting to see if pollen levels return or if the season is nearly finished.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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