The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 28/ Sunday, January 29 – TX/OK: Across the region today and tomorrow conditions will be cool with today’s highs in the 50’s in most area and tomorrow temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy skies will occur today, tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be from the northwest today and tonight at light levels. Tomorrow winds will be shifting, coming out of the southwest. Winds will be light, up to 10 miles per hour tomorrow and then back to light and variable conditions tomorrow night. Across Texas today, the northern portion will be mostly sunny to sunny, clearing even more tomorrow. Partly cloudy conditions will occur across the Edwards Plateau today but clear in the afternoon into tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50’s today across Texas with those traditionally warmer communities, such as San Antonio, getting into the low 60’s. Winds will be from the north to northeast. Between the Oklahoma border and the northern Edwards Plateau as well as the surrounding edge communities, moderate winds may occur. The winds may be gusty at times. On the Edwards Plateau moderate winds from the northeast will occur this morning then begin to relax towards the evening. Overnight light winds will return to the region with the Plateau winds moving from the south to southeast and the predominant northerly winds continuing in the surrounding communities towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the upper 20’s across Oklahoma and over the Edwards Plateau. I other areas the lows will be near freezing in most areas including Austin and San Antonio. Tomorrow sunny skies will predominate across Texas. Temperatures will rise by 5 degrees from today with most readings in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. Winds have switch coming from the south at light levels, except in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where a northerly direction in the winds will be maintained. Winds will be generally light across the entire region. Tomorrow night temperatures will cool into the 30’s and low 40’s but above freezing across the region. Winds will be maintained at light levels from the south.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will move towards the south on light northerly winds. At ground level the winds will be relatively stable, however above at both 250 and 500 meters the air will be much more buoyant. The winds will be light as well as light and variable over the forecast period. Beginning tonight the winds will begin to swing from the north to the west and southwest. As that occurs, the trajectories from southern Oklahoma will be moved towards the north and east. Temperatures will be cool with highs in the upper 40’s today limiting pollen release. Tomorrow temperatures will warm into the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Tonight’s temperatures will be in the upper 20’s tonight then warm with lows in the mid to upper 30’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Poor Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow with poor conditions for entrainment and transport today and moderate conditions tomorrow. Skies will partly cloudy today and tomorrow with cold temperatures across the region today. Tomorrow temperatures will return to the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Today the air is buoyant at the upper elevations but on the ground light and variable along with light winds will predominate. Today the conditions for pollen release area poor. Tomorrow temperatures will warm to conditions that are better for pollen release. Any pollen that is left to be released should have a good chance to do it. Across the region the last week has shown the appearance of pollen types that are associated with spring blooming plants. This usually is a strong signal that the Juniperus pollen season is ending. However, this is at least a full week if not two ahead of schedule.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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