The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 28 January 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Saturday, January 28/ Sunday, January 29 – TX/OK: Across the region today and tomorrow conditions will be cool with today’s highs in the 50’s in most area and tomorrow temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy skies will occur today, tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be from the northwest today and tonight at light levels. Tomorrow winds will be shifting, coming out of the southwest. Winds will be light, up to 10 miles per hour tomorrow and then back to light and variable conditions tomorrow night. Across Texas today, the northern portion will be mostly sunny to sunny, clearing even more tomorrow. Partly cloudy conditions will occur across the Edwards Plateau today but clear in the afternoon into tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50’s today across Texas with those traditionally warmer communities, such as San Antonio, getting into the low 60’s. Winds will be from the north to northeast. Between the Oklahoma border and the northern Edwards Plateau as well as the surrounding edge communities, moderate winds may occur. The winds may be gusty at times. On the Edwards Plateau moderate winds from the northeast will occur this morning then begin to relax towards the evening. Overnight light winds will return to the region with the Plateau winds moving from the south to southeast and the predominant northerly winds continuing in the surrounding communities towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the upper 20’s across Oklahoma and over the Edwards Plateau. I other areas the lows will be near freezing in most areas including Austin and San Antonio. Tomorrow sunny skies will predominate across Texas. Temperatures will rise by 5 degrees from today with most readings in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. Winds have switch coming from the south at light levels, except in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where a northerly direction in the winds will be maintained. Winds will be generally light across the entire region. Tomorrow night temperatures will cool into the 30’s and low 40’s but above freezing across the region. Winds will be maintained at light levels from the south.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move south to southwest on north to northeast winds. The winds will be light to moderate. Beginning tonight the winds will begin to swing from the northeast to the southeast and south. As that occurs, the trajectories will rotate over central and western Texas eventually coming around and moving northward.. Temperatures will be seasonally cool with highs in the mid to upper 50’s today warming into the upper 50’s and low 60’s tomorrow. The atmosphere will be stable throughout the forecast period. Tonight’s temperatures will be in the low 30’s and upper 20’s tonight then warm into the 30’s tomorrow with few communities near freezing.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport today and tomorrow. Skies will be clear today and tomorrow with cool temperatures across the region warming slightly tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 50’s across Texas today and then warm by about five degrees tomorrow. The air is stable and the winds will be light to moderate across the region. Any pollen that is left to be released should have a good chance to do it. Across the region the last week has shown the appearance of pollen types that are associated with spring blooming plants. This usually is a strong signal that the Juniperus pollen season is ramping down. However, this is at least a full week if not two ahead of schedule. With the recent rains it will be interesting to see if pollen levels return or if the season is nearly finished.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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