The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 31 – TX/OK: Across the region today and tomorrow conditions will be warm during the day with humid conditions and southerly winds. Today across the area the skies will start cloudy to mostly cloudy with fog to the north in Oklahoma and a chance of rain in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. In Austin and San Antonio there is a 50% and 40% chance of light rain, respectively. As the day wears on, temperatures will reach into the mid 70’s. Only in central Oklahoma will highs not be in the 70’s today. Winds will be from the south at light to moderate levels. Tonight, skies will remain partly cloudy with most areas having increasing clouds overnight. Low temperatures will be in the low 60’s in the surrounding communities. Over the Plateau itself, low temperatures will be in the low 50’s to upper 40’s. A similar temperature gradient will occur in northern Texas with Dallas/Fort Worth dropping into the 50’s and southern Oklahoma in the mid 40’s. Tomorrow the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will awaken to cloudy conditions and the chance of precipitation (20%) along with fog and drizzle. The Plateau and northward will be in the mid to low 70’s for their high temperatures once the morning clouds and rain dissipate. Winds will be very light from the southwest in the edge communities and from the northwest on the Edwards Plateau itself. In Oklahoma high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60’s. Tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy across Texas. Low temperatures will be in the 40’s to the north and across the Edwards Plateau, and in the low to mid 50’s in the edge communities such as Austin and San Antonio.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move due north on southerly winds. The winds will start light to moderate, but increase to gusty conditions into the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 60s across the region. With the southerly winds and increasing humidity there is a chance of showers in the San Antonio area today. Tonight the chance of light rain expands beyond San Antonio into the Austin area as well. Low temperatures will be mild in the 50’s. Winds will remain from the south at moderate levels. Tomorrow the chance of light rain and fog will linger into the morning hours in Austin and San Antonio. Most of the region will be partly to mostly cloudy. Only the edge communities will clear to partly sunny conditions. Temperatures will be warm with most areas in the 70’s. Winds will remain from the south at moderate levels and gusty conditions in the afternoon. Tomorrow night some cooling will occur with the Plateau expected to dip into the 40’s but the edge communities will be in the 60’s. Across Texas winds will remain from the south at light to moderate conditions.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today and tomorrow. Skies will be partly cloudy today and tomorrow but with warm temperatures in the 60’s and moderate winds today easing towards light winds tonight and tomorrow. Today the air is stable at low levels and thus entrainment and travel will occur in conditions that often result in a lot of impaction along the trajectory pathway. The trajectory initially moves towards the north to northeast on southerly winds, then turn back towards the south as a more northerly wind pattern moves into Oklahoma. Pollen counts across the region are tailing off as the end of the Juniperus ashei season begins to wind down. Any pollen that is left to be released should have a good chance to do it today and tomorrow. Across the region the last week has shown the appearance of pollen types that are associated with spring blooming plants. This usually is a strong signal that the Juniperus pollen season is nearly over. We are planning to end our forecast this coming Friday.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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