The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 1 February 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, February 1 – TX/OK: The region today and tomorrow will be humid as the area builds toward thunderstorms and showers tomorrow night. Today there is a 20% chance of thunderstorms and showers in northern Texas into Oklahoma with skies being mostly cloudy but clearing towards the south. To the south in the surrounding edge community fog and drizzle occurred this morning cut conditions will begin to clear being partly sunny the rest of the day. On the Plateau cloudy conditions will clear curing the day. Temperatures across the region will be in the 70’s in all areas except for southern Oklahoma where they will top off in the upper 60’s. Winds in Oklahoma will be light form the northeast. In northern Texas south to the edge communities’ winds will be from the south to southeast, and over the plateau they will be from the west and northwest. All of the winds will be light today. Tonight winds will decrease in strength to light conditions coming from the north to northeast. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30’s and 40’s to the north. In the surrounding communities lows will only drop into the lower 60’s to upper 50’s. This will also include the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau. To the west the Plateau communities will be in the lower 50’s and 40’s. Tomorrow the chance of rain will begin to increase starting from the north with a 20% chance of thunderstorms in Oklahoma. The edge communities will also have drizzle and fog building to a 20% chance of shower in San Antonio. These communities will break out to partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Temperatures will once again be in the 70’s across the Edwards Plateau region and in the upper 60’s to the north into Oklahoma. The winds will switch, coming out of the southeast and increase to moderate levels. Tomorrow night significant chance of rain, including thunderstorms, will occur across the area. Low temperatures will be warm with most readings in the 50’s and even lower 60’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate and from the southeast.

Trajectory weather: Over the past week, the amount of Juniperus ashei pollen in the atmosphere has been dropping. Over the last couple of days the surrounding communities, for the most part have recorded little if any of this pollen. With other spring pollen types in the atmosphere this is the signal to us that the Juniperus ashei Pollination season is over. There may be small amounts still released but they will be very localized and diluted by the other pollen types that area making it into the atmosphere.

This is the last forecast for the season. We invite you back next year in mid-December when the next season will start again. Thank you for your interest in our work.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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