The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 1 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 1 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with high temperatures to the north just climbing into the upper 30’s to low 40’s and across Texas temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s today. The southernmost community of San Antonio will struggle to get much above 60 degrees. Winds will be moderate from the north for the next two days. Skies will remain partly cloudy with moisture streaming across the region from the southwest. Overnight areas to the north in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau temperatures will fall into the 20’s. In the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30’s. Tomorrow partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will occur in Oklahoma southward along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Across the Edwards Plateau mostly cloudy conditions will occur. Temperatures will cool off another 5 to 10 degrees from today, with high temperatures in the 40’s region wide, just pushing into the 50’s along the southern edge of the Plateau. Winds will remain at lite to moderate conditions from the north and northeast. Tomorrow night, mostly to partly cloudy conditions will occur with temperatures back into the 20’s overnight and slightly warmer conditions in the communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will remain from the northeast to the south and from the northwest further north.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountain move southward today crossing over the Edwards Plateau over the next 48 hours. The atmosphere will be buoyant as upper level moisture continues to stream in from the southwest and interacts with the dominant cold conditions on the ground from the north and northeast. Communities across the Edwards Plateau and southward will see the effects of any pollen release. Temperatures for the next two days will remain in the mid to low 40’s, conditions not particularly conducive for pollen release. In addition, conditions over the past 3 to 4 days have brought precipitation and cold conditions thus the trees may be sluggish in releasing any pollen today. However, some local release is always possible and may affect allergy sufferers in the immediate vicinity. Tonight cold conditions will return with low temperature in the low to mid 20’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today with temperatures just getting into the 40’s. Tomorrow temperatures will be in the low 40’s. Cold conditions and recent rains will dampen any pollen release. Cold conditions will continue today and tomorrow with overnight low temperatures falling into the low to mid 20’s. Cold air will remain near the ground. For these reasons there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel across the region today, tonight, and tomorrow. Temperatures will mostly be in the 30’s and 40’s today and tonight with moderate wind speeds. Moderate winds will build again tomorrow along with the return of cold conditions. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow should provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but once the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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