The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 1 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 1 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with high temperatures to the north just climbing into the upper 30’s to low 40’s and across Texas temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s today. The southernmost community of San Antonio will struggle to get much above 60 degrees. Winds will be moderate from the north for the next two days. Skies will remain partly cloudy with moisture streaming across the region from the southwest. Overnight areas to the north in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau temperatures will fall into the 20’s. In the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30’s. Tomorrow partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will occur in Oklahoma southward along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Across the Edwards Plateau mostly cloudy conditions will occur. Temperatures will cool off another 5 to 10 degrees from today, with high temperatures in the 40’s region wide, just pushing into the 50’s along the southern edge of the Plateau. Winds will remain at lite to moderate conditions from the north and northeast. Tomorrow night, mostly to partly cloudy conditions will occur with temperatures back into the 20’s overnight and slightly warmer conditions in the communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will remain from the northeast to the south and from the northwest further north.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward today and then swirl over the Edwards Plateau area and southward over the next 48 hours. The atmosphere will be buoyant as moisture continues to stream in from the southwest and interacts with the dominant cold conditions from the north and northeast. Communities across the Edwards Plateau and southward will see the effects of any pollen release. Today will be the best day from pollen release with temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s. Conditions over the past 3 to 4 days have brought precipitation and cold conditions thus the trees may be sluggish in releasing any pollen today. However, local release is always possible and may affect allergy sufferers. Tonight cold conditions will return and tomorrow conditions will continue to dry out but mosts areas will struggle to get out of the 40’s. Winds will be lite and be maintained with flow from the north and northeast.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Cool to moderate temperatures across the region for pollen release today and tomorrow. Temperatures today will struggle to get into the 60’s at the southernmost area of the tree population. Today’s temperatures will remain cool with most areas in the 40’s and 50’s both today and tomorrow. The chance of precipitation is not in the forecast today or tomorrow, but the area will be drying out from the past couple of days. The atmosphere will be buoyant as moist air streams in from the southwest and interacts with the dominant north to northeasterly flow. For these reasons there will be good conditions for entrainment and travel at times but pollen release should be marginal today and tomorrow. Temperatures will mostly be in the 40’s today and low 50’s today and tomorrow. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow will continue to have low pollen levels, that will be confined to south Texas. It should continue to provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but once again as the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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