The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 2 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with high temperatures to the north climbing into the low to mid 40’s and across Texas temperatures today will also be in the 40’s in most regions. The westernmost portion of the Edwards Plateau, and south towards San Antonio will flirt with a high of 50 degrees today. Winds will be lite from the north to the northeast for the next two days. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the north and mostly cloudy over the Edwards Plateau. Tonight most areas, except for the edge communities along the southern and southeastern areas of the Edwards Plateau, will fall into the mid 20’s. The surrounding communities will remain in the 30’s. Winds will maintain a flow from the north to northeasterly direction at lite levels. Tomorrow mostly sunny conditions will occur from Oklahoma into the northern portion of Texas. Over the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities, skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy throughout the day. The western most region of the forecast area will begin to see the chance of snow and rain beginning on Thursday afternoon. Winds will flow from the north and northeast but will gain in strength approaching moderate conditions. Thursday night in south central Texas and on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities the chance of precipitation builds. The Plateau communities can expect precipitation in the form of snow and rain, whereas edge communities will mostly see rain. Temperatures will vary from the upper 20’s on the Edwards Plateau to the mid 30’s in the edge communities. Winds will remain from the north to northeast at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move southeastward today then directly southward over eastern Texas. The atmosphere will remain cold and dense moving at ground level along the trajectory. The cold conditions, with highs barely getting into the mid 40’s will restrict pollination and we expect little entrainment and travel from the Arbuckle Mountain population. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as well. Skies both days will be partly cloudy with lite and variable winds today then turning from the northwest tonight and tomorrow. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 20’s both tonight and tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today with temperatures getting into the low to mid 40’s. Tomorrow temperatures will be in the mid 40’s. Cold conditions will dampen any pollen release. Cold conditions will continue today and tomorrow with overnight low temperatures falling into the low to mid 20’s both evenings. Cold air will remain near the ground. For these reasons there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel across the region today, tonight, and tomorrow. Temperatures will climb through the 30’s into the mid 40’s today and tomorrow. Lite and variable winds will blowacross the Arbuckle Mountains today and tonight. Tomorrow, moderate winds will build during the day but return back to light and variable conditions tomorrow night. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow should provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but once the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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