The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 2 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with high temperatures to the north climbing into the low to mid 40’s and across Texas temperatures today will also be in the 40’s in most regions. The western most portion of the Edwards Plateau, and south towards San Antonio will flirt with a high of 50 degrees today. Winds will be lite from the north to the northeast for the next two days. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the north and mostly cloudy over the Edwards Plateau. Tonight most areas, except for the edge communities along the southern and southeastern areas of the Edwards Plateau, will fall into the mid 20’s. The surrounding communities will remain in the 30’s. Winds will maintain a flow from the north to northeasterly direction at lite levels. Tomorrow mostly sunny conditions will occur from Oklahoma into the northern portion of Texas. Over the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities, skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy throughout the day. The western most region of the forecast area will begin to see the chance of snow and rain beginning on Thursday afternoon. Winds will flow from the north and northeast but will gain in strength approaching moderate conditions. Thursday night in south central Texas and on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities the chance of precipitation builds. The Plateau communities can expect precipitation in the form of snow and rain, whereas edge communities will mostly see rain. Temperatures will vary from the upper 20’s on the Edwards Plateau to the mid 30’s in the edge communities. Winds will remain from the north to northeast at moderate levels.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward today and then move towards the southwest, before tuning and moving towards the southeastern portion of New Mexico. The atmosphere will be buoyant as moisture continues to stream in from the southwest and interacts with the dominant cold conditions from the north and northeast. Communities across the Edwards Plateau and southward will be affected by any pollen released today, however relatively cold conditions and recent rains should stall significant pollen release. Pollen release today and tomorrow will have about the same chance with temperatures in the 40’s in most areas. The surrounding communities will struggle to get into the low 50’s. Conditions over the past 3 to 4 days have brought precipitation and cold conditions thus the trees may be sluggish in releasing any pollen today. However, local release is always possible and may affect allergy sufferers. Tonight cold conditions will return and tomorrow conditions will continue to be nearly the same although there is an increasing chance of precipitation beginning tomorrow afternoon to the west and spreading east into the evening hours. Winds will be lite and be maintained with flow from the north and northeast.


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Cool to moderate temperatures across the region for pollen release today and tomorrow. Temperatures today will struggle to get into the upper 40’s and 50 at the southernmost area of the tree population. Temperatures will remain cool with most areas in the 40’s both today and tomorrow. The chance of precipitation is not in the forecast today but begins to increase tomorrow to the west. The atmosphere will be buoyant as moist air streams in from the southwest and interacts with the dominant north to northeasterly flow. For these reasons there will be good conditions for entrainment and travel at times but pollen release should be marginal today and tomorrow. Once warm conditions return pollen will begin to flow once again. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow will have low pollen levels confined to south Texas if any pollen becomes airborne. It should continue to provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but once again as the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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