The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 3 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with an increasing chance of precipitation over the next couple of days. Today temperatures across the region will struggle to get into the 40’s. In Oklahoma temperatures will be in the 30’s to the north and in the mid 40’s in the Arbuckle Mountains near the Texas border. To the south the Dallas/Fort Worth area will start mostly sunny degrading towards partly sunny as moisture begins to move across Texas today and tomorrow. In the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau and on the Plateau itself cloudy conditions will occur with high temperatures struggling to get into the upper 40’s in the surrounding communities and just reaching 40 degrees across the Plateau. There will be a 20% chance of snow, sleet or rain across the region today. Winds will be lite to moderate from the northeast. Tonight, cloudy conditions will occur region-wide with temperatures in the 20’s for Oklahoma and across the Plateau, and in the 30’s in the surrounding communities. The chance of precipitation will be 30% in the edge communities and upwards of 70% across the Plateau this evening falling as snow and snow/rain mix. Winds will remain from the northeast at lite to moderate conditions. Tomorrow the moisture will linger with cloudy conditions region wide. Across central Texas there is a chance of rain, snow and/or sleet. The surrounding communities will have a 40% chance of precipitation whereas the Edwards Plateau will be in the 20% to 30% range. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30’s across the Edwards Plateau and into the mid 40’s in the surrounding communities. Tomorrow afternoon the western portion of the Edwards Plateau will see a shift in winds coming from the southeast whereas the remaining forecast area will maintain a northeasterly direction. Tomorrow night, the chance of rain remains in the surrounding communities at 20%. Temperatures will be in the 30’s in the edge communities and in the upper 20’s to 30 on the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move southward on very light and variable winds today and tonight. Tomorrow a southwesterly flow will take over as the system delivering moisture over the Edwards Plateau moves across central Texas. With the southwesterly flow the trajectories move back north across Oklahoma and into the central Great Plains states. The air will be steady with little buoyancy associated with its’ movement. As the system moves through the area, moisture will stream in from the west and southwest resulting in mostly cloudy conditions. The interaction with the dominant cold conditions from the north and northeast will result in a chance of frozen precipitation (snow/sleet) tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Conditions will be cold today, tonight and tomorrow thus little pollen release is expected. In addition the area will experience lite winds over the next day or so. Poor conditions today as well as over the past 3 to 4 days have brought precipitation and cold conditions. The trees will be sluggish in releasing any pollen.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Cool to cold temperatures across the region will result in poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Temperatures today and tomorrow will struggle to get into the mid 40’s. Moisture will come into the area and the chance of precipitation increases tomorrow and tomorrow night. The atmosphere will be stable with the flow of cold air over the region. For these reasons there will be moderate to poor conditions for entrainment and travel with pollen release being minimal today and tomorrow. Once warm conditions return pollen will begin to flow once again. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow will have low pollen levels if any pollen. Conditions continue to provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but once again as the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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