The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 3 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with an increasing chance of precipitation over the next couple of days. Today temperatures across the region will struggle to get into the 40’s. In Oklahoma temperatures will be in the 30’s to the north and in the mid 40’s in the Arbuckle Mountains near the Texas border. To the south the Dallas/Fort Worth area will start mostly sunny degrading towards partly sunny as moisture begins to move across Texas today and tomorrow. In the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau and on the Plateau itself cloudy conditions will occur with high temperatures struggling to get into the upper 40’s in the surrounding communities and just reaching 40 degrees across the Plateau. There will be a 20% chance of snow, sleet or rain across the region today. Winds will be lite to moderate from the northeast. Tonight, cloudy conditions will occur region-wide with temperatures in the 20’s for Oklahoma and across the Plateau, and in the 30’s in the surrounding communities. The chance of precipitation will be 30% in the edge communities and upwards of 70% across the Plateau this evening falling as snow and snow/rain mix. Winds will remain from the northeast at lite to moderate conditions. Tomorrow the moisture will linger with cloudy conditions region wide. Across central Texas there is a chance of rain, snow and/or sleet. The surrounding communities will have a 40% chance of precipitation whereas the Edwards Plateau will be in the 20% to 30% range. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30’s across the Edwards Plateau and into the mid 40’s in the surrounding communities. Tomorrow afternoon the western portion of the Edwards Plateau will see a shift in winds coming from the southeast whereas the remaining forecast area will maintain a northeasterly direction. Tomorrow night, the chance of rain remains in the surrounding communities at 20%. Temperatures will be in the 30’s in the edge communities and in the upper 20’s to 30 on the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward then to the west and back northward tonight and tomorrow. The trajectories move towards the southeastern portion of New Mexico and then northward along the New Mexico/Texas border area. The air will be buoyant as a system moves through the area and moisture continues to stream in from the west and southwest. The interaction with the dominant cold conditions from the north and northeast will result in a chance of frozen precipitation (snow/sleet) across the region. Conditions will be cold today, tonight and tomorrow thus little pollen release is expected. In addition most areas will only see lite winds over the next day or so. The edge communities are the exception where moderate winds may move down off of the Edwards Plateau. The relatively cold conditions and recent rains, along with the chance of precipitation today, tonight and tomorrow should stall significant pollen release. In addition to poor conditions today, conditions over the past 3 to 4 days have brought precipitation and cold conditions. The trees will be sluggish in releasing pollen. However, minor local releases are always possible and may affect allergy sufferers directly if they are in close contact with individual trees. Tonight cold conditions will return and tomorrow conditions will continue to be nearly the same.. Winds will be lite and be maintained with flow from the north and northeast until late tomorrow afternoon and evening in the southernmost edge communities.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Cool to moderate temperatures across the region for pollen release today and tomorrow. Temperatures today will struggle to get into the upper 40’s in the surrounding edge communities. Temperatures will remain cool to cold with most areas struggling to get into the 40’s both today and tomorrow. The precipitation increases today, tonight and tomorrow. The atmosphere will be buoyant as a moist system from the west and southwest interacts with the dominant north to northeasterly flow of cold air. For these reasons there will be good conditions for entrainment and travel at times but pollen release should be minimal today and tomorrow with precipitation. Once warm conditions return pollen will begin to flow once again. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow will have low pollen levels if any pollen. Conditions continue to provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but once again as the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return. *

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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