The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 4 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with a chance of precipitation today and tonight. Across Texas today there is a chance of snow and rain developing across most of the region as temperatures warm during the day. This morning most areas were in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. There is a 20% chance of rain to the north in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, with increasing amounts of rain along the edge communities (40% chance) and over the Edwards Plateau (50% chance). High temperatures today will eventually struggle to get into the mid to lower 40’s. Winds will be from the east to northeast as the precipitation slides off to the east. In the north, Oklahoma, and on the western most side of the Edwards Plateau a more southerly flow will begin to move into the region. Overnight rain and snow will return to most areas off of the Edwards Plateau. The chance of precipitation will remain at about 20%. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy and low temperatures will be in the 30’s in the surrounding communities and to the north. On the Edwards Plateau, low temperatures will be in the upper 20’s. Winds will continue to move around, coming from the south overnight. The eastern most communities, around the edge of the Edwards Plateau will retain the northeasterly winds until the morning hours. Tomorrow mostly sunny skies will return to the region. Winds will be from the south to southwest bringing warming temperatures. In Oklahoma, tomorrow’s temperatures will reach into the high 40’s whereas across Texas warmer conditions in the lower 50’s will reestablish themselves. Winds will be lite in most areas. Tomorrow night the surrounding areas will have partly cloudy conditions with mostly clear to clear conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will return back into the upper 20’s as winds reestablish themselves from the northwest. Along the edge communities northward toward Dallas/Fort Worth winds will begin from the south but also switch to a northerly direction overnight.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward over the eastern side of Oklahoma as the current system of moisture slides off to the east. The trajectories move towards the eastern portion of Oklahoma, southeast most Kansas, and over northern Missouri. The air is dense and will travel along the ground where any entrained pollen will be susceptible to impaction removing it from the airstream. Tonight there will be an increasing chance of precipitation that may fall as rain or snow. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30’s. Conditions will continue to be cold today and tonight, but tomorrow warmer conditions will return with southern Oklahoma heading into the upper 40’s. Therefore little pollen release is expected today but tomorrow conditions will improve and some release may occur. In addition to southern Oklahoma, tomorrow the drying of the Juniperus ashei population will begin in earnest and local pollen concentrations will begin to build. Minor local releases are always possible and may affect allergy sufferers directly if they are in close contact with individual trees.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Cool temperatures across the region and an increase in the chance of precipitation tonight will result in poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Temperatures today will struggle to get into the mid 40’s, whereas tomorrow temperatures will move towards the upper 40’s. The atmosphere will be stable and dense with the flow of cold air over the region. For these reasons there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel with pollen release being minimal today and tomorrow. Once warm conditions return pollen will begin to flow once again. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. Today and tomorrow will have low pollen levels if any pollen. Conditions continue to provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but to the south the region will begin to dry out tomorrow and the remaining pollination season will return.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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